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Is Luck Random — or Can You Cultivate It? | Christian Busch | TED

When the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires destroyed his home and neighborhood, scientist Christian Busch encountered the opposite of serendipity: “zemblanity,” or bad luck by design. Drawing on more than a decade of scientific research, he explores how people can navigate unpredictability by adopting a serendipity mindset that transforms setbacks into unexpected new beginnings. He asks:…

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When the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires destroyed his home and neighborhood, scientist Christian Busch encountered the opposite of serendipity: “zemblanity,” or bad luck by design. Drawing on more than a decade of scientific research, he explores how people can navigate unpredictability by adopting a serendipity mindset that transforms setbacks into unexpected new beginnings. He asks: What if good luck isn’t random but can actually be cultivated? (Recorded at TED@BCG on ctober 23, 2025)

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44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. @stefanbrown7277

    April 7, 2026 at 11:06 am

    I love this

    • @22ffffff

      April 7, 2026 at 11:10 am

      👍👍

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:47 pm

      Thank you for watching!

  2. @kipo3

    April 7, 2026 at 11:07 am

    Ted talks have fallen off dang…

  3. @TinaSadeghi-g8q

    April 7, 2026 at 11:38 am

    Love this. Zemblanity was new to me and just as compelling as serendipity. The luck matrix is a helpful way to visualize it.

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:37 pm

      Thank you, I’m glad that it resonated!

  4. @onjulraz754

    April 7, 2026 at 12:04 pm

    excellent advice. thank you for your Ted talk

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:39 pm

      Thank you!

  5. @MattLang-x2h

    April 7, 2026 at 12:10 pm

    I found this really helpful. I will try to incorporate more of a serendipity mindset into my daily life.

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:38 pm

      That’s wonderful to hear, thank you for watching!

  6. @Solomon-w3j8y

    April 7, 2026 at 12:25 pm

    9:32 i would disagree regret of not trying goes away quickly but consequences are woven into reality.(Ignoring the bad side of action is also ignorant behaviour)
    I do get your point that trying has more chance of success than not trying
    But u have a flawed logic and ignoring many variables,it wasn’t just the unexpected situations which led to the love of their life it was both their personality, situation and what they were feeling and thinking.
    If u just see the unexpected situation u risk regretting ever taking such actions like when u were a kid all u wanted was to be dependent on ur parents as Adults all u want is to be independent desires can change in the future,even robust values may change or adapt with time and you never know the future so always consider what’s the most worst thing which could happen and are u willing to risk it for the biscuit.

  7. @AshleyAlexopoulos

    April 7, 2026 at 12:29 pm

    👆🏼👏🏼

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:47 pm

      🙏

  8. @harveykarp8746

    April 7, 2026 at 12:29 pm

    In a world that feels so out of control, it is empowering to see how to flip random acts into opportunities and how to sidestep inevitable pitfalls.

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:50 pm

      Agreed, that shift is often where (almost) everything changes. Thank you!

    • @RavindarSingh-w9b

      April 8, 2026 at 6:37 am

      L 0
      Mjoot 1:04

  9. @lilifakhari6033

    April 7, 2026 at 1:26 pm

    Such an interesting take on what luck is

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:38 pm

      Thank you! 🙏

  10. @nitinsinghbros

    April 7, 2026 at 1:28 pm

    Wowo it’s really given a realistic solution to all problems.
    Even at the last moment you can change the outcome, if you are positive

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:48 pm

      This last-moment-shift is so crucial, thank you for watching!

  11. @LexiMontée

    April 7, 2026 at 1:35 pm

    I didn’t know that there was a word for this, Zemblanity… or that so many of the things I perceived as just plain bad luck that happened to me in my life were actually because of the way I designed the situation (or some cases the way others designed the situation). Just having awareness of this will help me not design things the same way any longer. Super helpful to open my eyes to this!

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:37 pm

      Agreed, once you start seeing it, you can’t unsee it!

  12. @KatarinaHogan-r1c

    April 7, 2026 at 2:34 pm

    This really hit home…changing how I see things and treating challenges as opportunities instead of obstacles has me feeling inspired to stay open, embrace surprises, and turn even small moments into something positive!

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:36 pm

      Love this, that openness is definitely where it often starts, thank you for watching!

  13. @nele.terveen

    April 7, 2026 at 6:13 pm

    Eye opening!! Zemblanity helps us to spot and understand the fragility built into the systems around us – and ultimately, hopefully, to prevent it from turning into bad luck, once we see clearly.

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 7, 2026 at 7:49 pm

      Agreed, there’s so much opportunity in zemblanity-spotting!

  14. @TheWarrrenator

    April 7, 2026 at 8:01 pm

    Of course a German gives us a newish word for concerted misfortune. Although flirting on the bus with strangers is apparently appropriate in Deutschland, here in the U. S of A, don’t do it, it’s harassment. Speaking of which, I’m surprised he didn’t mention gun violence since the zemblanity of it occurring in Europe is lower than would be here.

  15. @Miss_Anne_Thropic

    April 7, 2026 at 8:19 pm

    Absolute BS, this guy is like so many other humans who think we can control nature. He lost me in less than 2.5 minutes.

  16. @sheilalang1178

    April 7, 2026 at 9:18 pm

    What a fascinating talk! This really clicked for me. The idea of contingency planning and preparedness is something we take seriously at my company to deliver consistent results but I hadn’t thought about it in terms of zemblanity vs. serendipity before. I really enjoyed the perspective the matrix gave to these concepts.

    Cheers to cultivating more good luck!

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 8, 2026 at 9:21 pm

      Thank you, I’m very glad it resonated, and the link to contingency planning is such an interesting one, that’s often exactly where we’ve seen serendipity (and zemblanity) show up in practice!

  17. @amandafarrell6063

    April 7, 2026 at 10:19 pm

    I love this!!! What an amazing perspective i think everyone can learn and apply to business or their personal life

  18. @sviaxqu4072

    April 7, 2026 at 10:24 pm

    agency
    risk of doing it → risk of not doing it
    9:39

  19. @FriendlyAlpaca

    April 7, 2026 at 11:40 pm

    Sounds like Gavin Nuisance

  20. @PetraDallinger

    April 7, 2026 at 11:53 pm

    Thanks!

  21. @BrianMcInnis87

    April 8, 2026 at 2:32 am

    Luck refers to probability factors we don’t have influence over, so no, you can’t cultivate it. Any favorability factors you can influence are not luck.

  22. @sarabamossy3929

    April 8, 2026 at 4:03 am

    Nice one Christian, I especially loved the closing line “Start building a world that’s designed more for serendipity and guards against zemblanity.”

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 8, 2026 at 3:26 pm

      Thank you, and yes, here’s to more serendipity and less zemblanity!

  23. @MarcoBz1

    April 8, 2026 at 6:38 am

    An inspiring talk from a great mind! Many probability spaces can actually be designed in ways we might not intuitively think are possible. Thanks, Christian, for delivering this gem to us.

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 8, 2026 at 3:25 pm

      Thank you for your kind words, much appreciated! And very true, those probability spaces often only become visible at second glance.

  24. @wutytiz

    April 8, 2026 at 7:30 am

    Very Intriguing!!!✌️😎

  25. @Atjayvang21

    April 8, 2026 at 3:15 pm

    I already lnow whats coming. I won’t engage. She does

  26. @KaterynSalazar-p1f

    April 9, 2026 at 1:09 am

    I love it!! It’s a nice way to see bad luck in a different way.

  27. @Philipp-s7f

    April 9, 2026 at 3:10 pm

    Good stuff. I have followed this guy for a while and he seems to buy his own story – I like that. It reminds me of an old german movie called Victor Vogel.

    • @drchristianbusch

      April 9, 2026 at 7:33 pm

      Vielen Dank!

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