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@geraldjunior4235
November 25, 2024 at 3:14 pm
Solar Cell are you kidding me in New Mexico
@j.m.7715
November 25, 2024 at 5:09 pm
Rocket Lab briefly matching SpaceX cadence is a sign they are building the capacity to compete with SpaceX when reusable Neutron rocket is ready. And the space semis are a moat and a deep knowledge differentiator SpaceX doesn’t have.
RKLB ????
@dphuntsman
November 25, 2024 at 8:20 pm
I’m gonna give you a Thumbs Down because I don’t think you correctly understand the competitive environment Neutron will face- nor has RocketLab correctly publicly admitted what it will be (and I’m a shareholder- probably RKLB’s smallest, tho!). RocketLab’s main competitive advantage in 2026 with Neutron will be that it’s not named SpaceX, & customers- starting with US government agencies- want competition desperately. BUT…
The competitive environment in 2026 in the Medium Launch Market will be hugely more competitive than it is right now in 2024. But Adam & Peter are wrong IMO about the $55m they think they’ll be able to charge for Neutron. A SpaceX Falcon 9 (super reliable, more capable than Neutron)- launch costs SpaceX internally only $15m (Quilty); an F9 booster costs only $1.5m to refurbish (ArkInvest). So while PB knows big players want a viable launch option, his trying to price it at $55m – at the time F9 loses most of its customers (Starlink Minis) & ‘dumps’ over 100 F9s on the market in 2026- and FOR THE FIRST TIME is allowed to compete hard on things like cost- is Not realistic. Put yourself in Gwynne’s place: What would You charge for an F9 in the beginning of 2027, as lower-capability Neutron, Firefly, Relativity, Ariane 6 are on the scene? I’m honestly asking. Is she really going to let that Falcon 9 team- that is running at least at a 120 launches/year rate in 2026- just suddenly throttle way down, take a vacation, & give the market to the expensive untried newbies? Why should she? – Dave Huntsman