Science & Technology
The “Adjacent Possible” – and How It Explains Human Innovation | Stuart Kauffman | TED
From the astonishing evolutionary advances of the Cambrian explosion to our present-day computing revolution, the trend of dramatic growth after periods of stability can be explained through the theory of the “adjacent possible,” says theoretical biologist Stuart Kauffman. Tracing the arc of human history through the tools and technologies we’ve invented, he explains the impact…
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C. F.
August 28, 2023 at 7:02 am
First
C+O2
August 28, 2023 at 7:46 am
The element we put in the air is the element that makes soil grow.
Bradford Wade
August 28, 2023 at 2:38 pm
Rain helps too. Unfortunately, climate change means more flooding and droughts. Plenty of rain, but not where farmers need it.
Feedback ZA Loop
August 28, 2023 at 8:06 am
As an engineer I can say the world-machine analogy still holds, it is just the definition of a machine expanded over the years and includes more probabalistic properties.
Also,
TV – 1928
Helicopter – 1929
Computer – ok, that one is questionable, but I’d still name Z1 in 1938
Jet engines – 1867, by 1930 we got turbojets already
Rockets – Han Dynasty ~ 200 BC
Plastics – first polimers described in 1833
Andrey S
August 28, 2023 at 11:52 am
This Kauffman dude wasted 12 minutes of my life
Danl Hendle
August 28, 2023 at 8:07 am
Hurry
Laura Adams
August 28, 2023 at 8:11 am
I am reminded of Earthship Technology and how it may be the way forward for many. We have to allow this type of architecture.
Bob Blue
August 28, 2023 at 8:37 am
I’m a little bit confused but I guess that’s because I haven’t gone to college or I just don’t pay attention to this sort of thing .
Fizzishin
August 28, 2023 at 9:01 am
It’s also quite metaphysical and esoteric. You’d have no problem understanding it very well, but most people will need to do a bit of extra reading around the subject. I don’t follow it 100% either, but honestly that’s how it always is in academia.
Andrey S
August 28, 2023 at 11:53 am
Kauffman is confused too, just ignore him
arisbe, a guess at the riddle
August 28, 2023 at 12:29 pm
Its about three points I think.
(1) Possibility and actuality are metaphysical concepts, the difference of which it helps to pay attention to. The difference is that possibility is like a awareness and representation of an absence while actuality is like a present existent thing. Still there are possibilities we are not aware of (possible possible vs actual possible… your not expected to understand that part!)
(1) Tools (or instruments) have primary functions or purposes and they create a possible complementary tool (co-possibility). Still we *cannot list* all the uses or roles they can play in our “workshop of all tools” nor can we methodically (like a machine) just step by step describe how to do this.
(3) The point about the fast growth of technology is just this: We can describe a circle in terms of quantities like the radius, circumference, and area. But think about how as the size of the circle grows the border with the outside, the circumference does too.
> “‘As our circle of knowledge expands, so does the circumference of darkness surrounding it.'” — Albert Einstein
Now the inside of the circle is what we know we know (“known knowns”), the edge is what we know we don’t know (the *adjacent* possible or “known unknowns”) and the far away is the what we don’t know that we don’t know (“unknown unknowns”).
So he is saying although we become more aware of our ignorance we become more aware of stepping-stone possibilities too.
Jawn Explores
August 28, 2023 at 9:15 am
What on Earth is he saying 18% of the time
- GG83
August 28, 2023 at 9:37 am
This is perfect! I get a little teary-eyed thinking about these concepts. It usually is a simple answer for complex things.
science 21
August 28, 2023 at 10:20 am
Life is chance and natural selection.
Not a complex theory.
science 21
August 28, 2023 at 10:25 am
Human progress is finite.
Read Gunther Stent, John Horgan, Robert J. Gordon and Russell Funk.
science 21
August 28, 2023 at 10:38 am
Alan Cromer is for the end of progress.
He said science is conservative. And he is right. Every rational person know that.
Friendly One
August 28, 2023 at 11:19 am
Wealth increased with increased people….that alone should silence the remaining zero sum economists and popular writers who believe in the need of reduced population.
His “solutions” take more people to implement.
Nature is neither kind nor gentle. Floods, earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural calamities can be more destructive than the worst of human pollution — and we can be very bad. We can also jumpstart natural recoveries and create a greener earth everywhere. But that will take skilled people willing to admit how little we know.
Andrey S
August 28, 2023 at 11:56 am
TLDR: Put fungal-bacteria mix into a fertilizer and it will solve all our problems – GDP will be happy, bacteria happy, Kauffman happy, everyone will go to outer space and so on
SAHM
August 28, 2023 at 3:47 pm
Great presentation, although I wished this video showed more of the slides.
thewefactor1
August 28, 2023 at 3:53 pm
This is a cool take on the ‘fire’ that Kauffman describes. I would have like to hear him talk about what’s causing this new ‘fire’ in the world that has not been present before our times? And carbon would be the answer to that, but what is increasing the carbon at an exponential rate? And is this rate of fire going to reverse with science ‘water’ thrown on it? Will the ‘fire’ ever get out of control where no mater how much ‘water’ you throw on it nothing happens but more ‘fire’ and vapor? It’s overpopulation of human life. ‘The planet’s on fire, S.K.’ and the comment section here seems to be concerned with other matters.
James Runco
August 28, 2023 at 5:48 pm
So I feel like he skipped/cut some connective tissue in between the infinity of things and climate change/compost parts of his talk. I’m going to summarize the point of this video into a <1 minute read.
-Everything created makes it easier/faster to create new things. Via either intentional logical progressions or random combinations.
-At a certain point there are enough things to interact that the time to create a new thing is reduced to almost 0 allowing for an almost instant explosion of creative production. Since the time is reduced so dramatically, the limiting factors are materials and energy (though he doesn't specifically address energy).
Human invention has hit this "infinite expansion" threshold and is rapidly consuming all available resources to make things. This infinite creation is not environmentally sustainable. (He doesn't expressly say it, but everything created has an impact on the environment and ensuring that the impact is positive has not been a priority in most of this creation). Without intentional countermeasures we are going to use all the finite resources that are readily available (Earth).
I THINK he is proposing using specifically designed fungal colonies to absorb carbon and pollutants from the atmosphere by converting the large swaths of Earth's agricultural land around the globe into duel use food production/carbon capture facilities.
There seemed to be a side point about the way we currently produce fertilizer being counter-productive but this point was poorly developed. I think he was basically saying we need to convert a massive thing that is currently a detriment to being part of the solution. He seemed aware of a way to do this, but familiarly referred to obscure things that even the highly educated would not neccessary know about. He spoke of the methods of a particular composting approach as if they were common knowledge.
If he wants to make a greater impact on the environment, he should hire a competent grad student with excellent communication skills and spend a few hours explaining his ideas to her. Then let her make a succinct presentation that explains all the things he knows and is trying to communicate. This would be humbling for him, but likely be better for the planet.
James Runco
August 28, 2023 at 6:07 pm
Oh and I think the rush of AI assisted human creation of digital assets is also following a similar “hockey stick” pattern. Reinforcing the idea that the innovative explosion is an inherent feature of adjacent innovation.
lars van veen
August 28, 2023 at 6:18 pm
I heard about this via Josh Scott from jhs pedals lol
numbakrunch
August 28, 2023 at 6:22 pm
I feel like he’s teaching the alphabet but only including a few Greek letters and some Sanskrit in some order that only he understands.
oryxchannel
August 28, 2023 at 6:53 pm
OMG! He ended with “soil” and “composts”. See “terra preta”! How I miss Sir Ken Robinson.
Bunda Rully
August 28, 2023 at 9:21 pm
25 May 2017 – Imam Mahdi Muhammad Qasim saw that when people’s houses and businesses are destroyed by the evil forces that control Pakistan, then the people will be in despair of their situation and chaos will ensue. Imam Mahdi Muhammad Qasim Dreams
Regina Quintana
August 28, 2023 at 10:20 pm
7:42 when I see that, it confirms the recent UN Report on Freedom in relation to Economic Success – because Scribe, Solicitor, Clergy, Wealthy Merchants….. when has it not been about controlling information and people? If everyone who wanted to know, could know – I really think we could solve Any problem. Of course there will be new ones, stay the course and we can solve those too.
Ted Meyer
August 29, 2023 at 12:21 am
What a waste of time.
Darhan62
August 29, 2023 at 1:14 am
Fungus will save the world! And bacteria will help. I guess that was the conclusion. The run up was an interesting look at how novelty comes about both in evolution and in the history of human invention and innovation.
Game of Learning English
August 29, 2023 at 3:35 am
This presentation is absolutely perfect.
Avery Lemons
August 29, 2023 at 2:01 pm
I got kindof lost after he said “the number of things reaches infinity in finite time” 6:09. Like, no, just say near infinite, which is almost certainly what you mean. It will not actually go infinite in finite time.
Benny Malone
August 30, 2023 at 8:28 am
Humans are the paperclip maximiser
Kumomi Ayahua
September 2, 2023 at 9:55 pm
Very similar to what I understood out of emergentism from Mary Midgley (science and poetry)