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Jeffrey Rosenthal, a professor of statistics at the University of Toronto, answers the internet’s burning questions about statistics. What are the most common statistical errors? Why do polls get it so wrong? What’s the worst casino game in terms of odds? How does probability work in roulette? Jeffrey answers all these questions and much more!…
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Vlad Igor
February 21, 2022 at 11:05 pm
He’s giving me beetle juice vibes somehow
Random League of Legends (Thresh) games
February 21, 2022 at 11:08 pm
HA! You forgot one variable, I have no friends or family
Jeremay Nossa
February 21, 2022 at 11:10 pm
Hey, bring this guy back, really interesting
RøadKīLLz
February 21, 2022 at 11:22 pm
Whats the probability he will grow more hair?? 🤨🤨🧐🧐🤨🧐🤨🧐🤨🧐🧐🤨🧐🤨🧐🧐🧐🤨🧐🧐🤨HMMMMMM
Kahn
February 21, 2022 at 11:24 pm
13=50
Lane S
February 21, 2022 at 11:34 pm
What a nerd. Love it.
Lars
February 21, 2022 at 11:43 pm
I really enjoyed this! His enthusiasm is contagious.
Joseph Badero
February 22, 2022 at 12:07 am
Its big ed
kawsa ponnampalam
February 22, 2022 at 12:07 am
statistics are great and all but why does this guy look like big ed with hair
Michael Mclarnon
February 22, 2022 at 12:12 am
Agree with most of what you said except the airplane crash scenario. Bush pilots in Canada (and Alaska) have a much higher risk of being in a second plane crash than the average population who fly commercial between major hubs.
Marcus Matthews
February 22, 2022 at 12:13 am
Thanks to Wired for NOT editing out the f-word in the Twitter handle at 8:42. I enjoy mathematics and coarse language in equal measure, and they so rarely intersect in the public forum!
Aaliyah 🍆 Onlive SAX Video 💋
February 22, 2022 at 12:15 am
Someone should have asked how statisticians define luck.
georock15
February 22, 2022 at 12:21 am
The 3 generations with the same birthday exemplifies why I dont trust statistics in the real world. The obvious answer is 365×365, but that doesn’t take into account leap years, why date of conception is around the same time (valentine’s day?), the possibility of some significance of making sure a child is born that day (inducing labor to ensure meeting some age cut off date like for school or something). Essentially there innumerable variables and it is not even theoretically possible to account for it all.
jezusghoti
February 22, 2022 at 12:31 am
These videos rule and a lot of it is because you pick great people for them.
Madison 𝔽**СК МЕ - СНЕℂ𝕂 𝕄𝕐 Рℝ𝟘𝔽𝕀𝕃Е💛
February 22, 2022 at 12:35 am
i love watching people talk about something that they’re passionate about
Tha Shiffy
February 22, 2022 at 12:43 am
He keeps saying “look at the actual statistics” but where does one get the actual statistics? That’s the problem.
Erik Thompson
February 22, 2022 at 12:43 am
I thought this was big ed
Alberto Avena
February 22, 2022 at 12:51 am
At first, I thought this was Kelsey Grammer haha
Elizabeth🔞𝓕**СК МЕ - СНЕ𝓒𝓚 𝓜𝓨 Р𝓡0𝓕𝓘𝓛Е
February 22, 2022 at 12:56 am
I could listen to this guy talk all day
Serrato
February 22, 2022 at 12:56 am
am i the only one that spent 5 minutes trying to pronounce “statistician”
Daniel Campbell
February 22, 2022 at 1:01 am
6:15 I have zero qualifications to make this guess, but I’ll make it anyway. I think the reason people prefer the video poker and slot machines is that you’re less exposed to people seeing you lose. To lose is a very embarrassing and vulnerable time. If you’re doing that by yourself at a video terminal, it doesn’t sting as bad.
Teeya Li
February 22, 2022 at 1:05 am
i like this guy🙂
Hilario Hernandez
February 22, 2022 at 1:14 am
– Now i want to know the probability to see this guy again.
– Well, that depends if you replay the video or not.
Riya ✨ Bond T[A]P ON [M][Y] PlcTuRE
February 22, 2022 at 1:14 am
i love watching people talk about something that they’re passionate about
nikkmitchell
February 23, 2022 at 4:49 pm
This guy needs his own channel.
Kit Marcos
February 23, 2022 at 5:46 pm
I took frequent naps in my AP Stats class in high school (my teacher was cool but she spoke in monotone), and against statistical odds, I passed with a C, because I at least studied enough for the tests.
If this guy was my AP Stats teacher, maybe I would have been more likely to get a B.
Vidya Gaems
February 23, 2022 at 5:47 pm
Dude reads “king dweeb” as “king D weeb”. Powerlevel slip?
umm.aydenG k
February 23, 2022 at 5:58 pm
if you play anime fighters on roblox, everything in this was more likely than pulling a shiny divine unit
philip ndungu
February 23, 2022 at 6:22 pm
This guy looks exactly what i pictured a statistician would look like.
Escape from PA
February 23, 2022 at 7:11 pm
The 2020 Election was not statistically off…Trump won. The Democraps cheated. Presumably this guy is a libtard.
Chris Ang
February 23, 2022 at 7:19 pm
I mean, he didn’t necessarily disprove that the bolt of lightning thing won’t happen though lol
Chris Elwell
February 23, 2022 at 7:50 pm
The real probability of something happening is either 100% or 0%, but we only know which one of those it is after the fact. More granular but less accurate probabilities can be assigned before the event, and they might be useful, but they don’t perfectly reflect reality, just a myopic view that doesn’t appreciate the context (other variables) fully.
Matt Tondr
February 23, 2022 at 7:57 pm
Short answer: against you.
Cadrid
February 23, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Jeff kinda sounds and looks like John C. Reilly.
Except Jeff is both incredibly smart and affable.
utopiapro007
February 23, 2022 at 8:46 pm
What’s the most significantly unlikely thing that happened to you?
You were conceived with your particular set of genes and lived to be born.
Sam Kleinbooi
February 23, 2022 at 8:53 pm
Canadian Jimmy Kimmel is prety SMORT!
Auggie Contreras
February 23, 2022 at 9:36 pm
What’s the probability that there’s a Jimmy Kimmel look alike, who’s grown out his hair and decided to become a statistician?
Arny Diablo
February 23, 2022 at 10:13 pm
When did Frasier become a statistician? Jokes apart, sounds like a great teacher…wouldn’t mind sitting in this professor’s class!
cmdtrigun
February 23, 2022 at 10:21 pm
The question about “when do I need statistics in real life?” hurts me. Since the age of news misinformation, there could not be a more valuable field to understand. I also liked that he touched on the 2016 election, because that was a great example of people stuck in their bubbles convincing themselves that the election would pan out one way, mistaking their opinion for a statistical reflection of the whole nation.
jaytroll
February 23, 2022 at 10:33 pm
light it is either on or off it doesn’t have a speed
in Valhalla神様
February 23, 2022 at 10:47 pm
This was awesome. This guy is awesome.
Pacvalham
February 23, 2022 at 11:01 pm
Which is more likely: winning the Powerball with one ticket, or randomly shuffling two full decks of cards separately and getting the same permutation in both?
Rachid van Heyningen
February 23, 2022 at 11:15 pm
No, the answer to the poll question is that human beings in general don’t think and thus do things impulsively or by tradition. Someone might see a piece of gum in the shape of a B and decide at the booth that it’s a sign to vote for Biden..
stevestojan
February 23, 2022 at 11:30 pm
42 years old. Have worked in business my entire adult life. And today, I finally understand what a p-value is.
Fabrizio Marcillo
February 24, 2022 at 12:02 am
It was a fun video, until you tried to put p-value in terms of probability. NEXT
TELYYSESSIONS
February 24, 2022 at 12:20 am
i love this dude and im only 52 seconds in
Carlos Roberto
February 24, 2022 at 12:49 am
had him as my STA220 prof – very chill guy!!
Lance Quek
February 24, 2022 at 12:49 am
Awesome discussion.
00Mj000
February 24, 2022 at 1:26 am
I saw the thumbnail and immediately recognized him. He taught me stats. Glad to see him getting recognition on wired
Dan Smith
February 24, 2022 at 6:05 pm
One reason why polls are wrong: I lie.
Andi J
February 24, 2022 at 6:18 pm
When he was talking about a bolt of lightning I had a bolt of lightning in the background.
C00kie_Monster
February 24, 2022 at 6:21 pm
A small correction on this guys story about the British woman and the kids. The reason the probability was so low was because it assumed that 1 kid dying was independent of the other kid, but that was not the case. There were genetics in play for why those kids died so those were not independent events and thus the “probability” of them both dying was actually much much higher. Zach Star did a video talking about misused stats and explains the info in that story well
Dan Smith
February 24, 2022 at 6:23 pm
Great explanations to things people often don’t understand or don’t think through. As someone who uses such data frequently, I would only add that people should rely too much on any one stat—get more data/stats and try to ‘triangulate’ in on what’s really going on. Also: employ healthy skepticism to any data.
Luke S
February 24, 2022 at 6:41 pm
14:46 is a better applied example of a stochastic process than his explanation of a stochastic process lol. Assuming you take plane rides at some consistent rate, the expected number of crashes would really dependent only on the length of the time considered, would generally be time invariant, and would be memoryless
Jose Guarin
February 24, 2022 at 6:51 pm
I share a birthday with my mom and sister
joeskis
February 24, 2022 at 7:35 pm
The problem is finding accurate dissemination of data, such as crime/murder stats.
Adulations
February 24, 2022 at 7:42 pm
This guy is amazing. Have him come back!
Ali JVN
February 24, 2022 at 7:46 pm
He is So wrong, I am sure chance of winning two lottery sequentially is less than chance of winning a lottery
commander hotdog
February 24, 2022 at 7:51 pm
king d. weeb
SubEthaEngineer
February 24, 2022 at 8:52 pm
Great guest
MountainHawkPYL
February 24, 2022 at 9:21 pm
Statistics is the branch of mathematics that lets you say “maybe” with confidence.
Addison Draper
February 24, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Isn’t it correct that even when you are able to calculate the probability of an outcome with a fair amount of accuracy you are still absolutely unable to make an actual prediction about what that outcome will be? I think you guys are pretty smart but also seem to be pretty useless.
Boris Badinoff
February 24, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Public opinion polls are not intended or even presented as predictive: They provide a snapshot of public opinion on the day the poll is conducted. Moreover, the only reliable and relevant data point is not candidates’ score, but the movements of the scores over time based on similarly conducted polls: it indicates the dynamic of the campaign, ie, who’s gaining or losing steam. The rest is just how journalists and candidate spin poll results for their own agenda. Newspapers are big consumers of polls, as it creates instant news, most of the time worthless both in terms of knowledge and methodology, starting with how the questions are phrased.
Gwendoline P.
February 24, 2022 at 9:46 pm
an expert that talks about their field is always so interesting and well explained
jarnMod - KFP Sticky Note Service
February 24, 2022 at 9:52 pm
16:30 Now that’s a good college class question. What are the odds you meet someone you know in Disney Land? How about what are the odds you spend 3 days in Disney Land and not find a single soul you know.
The Ders
February 24, 2022 at 10:03 pm
Never thought about how likely those “small world” run ins actually are. It totally makes sense that out of the thousands of people you see at a place like an airport or disneyworld, one of them just has to be one of the hundreds of people you know on this planet.
Cary
February 24, 2022 at 10:16 pm
They always bring the best experts on here. Love the selection💯
JM Dennis
February 24, 2022 at 10:55 pm
This guy show go on foxnews and do a seminar
Smitty08
February 24, 2022 at 11:02 pm
Ran into someone our family knew in disney world when we live 700 miles away 1/200 lottery haha
Daniel Barahona
February 24, 2022 at 11:34 pm
Great!
Justin Gerald
February 24, 2022 at 11:37 pm
Major professor vibes here (in a good way!)
Splitting Productions
February 24, 2022 at 11:40 pm
I once talked to someone once who did that “everything is 50/50” argument. I really hope they were just trying to open a thought provoking conversation and didn’t actually believe that, but your counter argument was a very interesting piece of information to keep in mind for the future.
Zjardyn Liera-Hood
February 25, 2022 at 12:02 am
I saw this guy live along with other stats titans of our era, truly inspirational stuff
feist__
February 25, 2022 at 1:28 am
What are some times when statistics really helped us? I know stats HAS helped us, I just want a short history of some instances.
Attila Lipták
February 25, 2022 at 11:46 am
He says it’s very unlucky that someone gets into 2 plane crashes but also it is very lucky because he survived the first crash which is unlikely
L. P.
February 25, 2022 at 12:34 pm
3:00 im a ‘pollster’ of sorts and agree 100%. talking to people about any kind of social issue with people that are randomly selected is difficult, and most people fob you off. even if getting told to eff off accounts for 80% of people, some 10% might be paranoid about privacy or govnt and wont answer simple questions (even with the law protecting them), people might be conspiracy theorists, and take umbridge to every questions, people might just be very contrarian, and simply refuse to answer questions in a straight forward way that researchers can plug in without reading the persons mind for them. particularly conservative men, you offer them 5 responses of strongly agree through strongly disagree and they wont choose. The researcher cant do it for them without biasing the study, and they will not be able to get a straight answer because the person is just too contrarian to pick a multiple choice answer. This sounds stupid, but honestly it happens all the time, meanwhile left-leaning retiree old ladies that just want everyone to get along answer every survey every time theyre selected.
AC A
February 25, 2022 at 12:50 pm
Great video
Must be older because we have a lot of Murders in the US this year !
official
February 25, 2022 at 12:57 pm
he is such a happy human
Don Dave
February 25, 2022 at 1:00 pm
I can answer this question: . The answer is you being conceived “naturally” and born. Imagine out of hundreds of million of sperm and million of eggs you are the lucky one.
Here Come The Runs
February 25, 2022 at 1:23 pm
I will say, I hated statistics in school and thought it was pointless. That is until I started working out of college and saw just how much I needed it every day. Pay attention to what seems boring now because it will pay off in the future!
wirito
February 25, 2022 at 2:03 pm
Didn’t know Frasier was also a mathematician.
Shabby Cat
February 25, 2022 at 2:04 pm
I like this guy!
Diego Laíño
February 25, 2022 at 2:19 pm
I think the joke about the chance of being involved in two airplane accidents went flying over his head…
PontikiPsito4
February 25, 2022 at 4:19 pm
just imagine how many times this man has said probably in his life
James Kuznecoff
February 25, 2022 at 5:34 pm
bruh imagine you make a tweet 7 years ago and, one day, you suddenly get a reply out of the blue to find out you’re in wired
The Animation Station
February 25, 2022 at 6:03 pm
Now look up Frano Selak or Frane Selak what are the odds of being that you unlucky but also very lucky at the same time!!
I need answers !!!!
erirad329
February 25, 2022 at 7:03 pm
Behold, the native Canadian saying “Don’t be an idiot” in the politest ways possible.
thisscreensucks
February 25, 2022 at 7:36 pm
About the comment regarding skewed data.
When you can literally measure the % of error within a set of data, that means even with skewed data. they still have a REALLY good idea of what the data actually says.
Ball TillWeFall82
February 25, 2022 at 9:04 pm
If I had to pick a statistician out of a crowd of random people, most would pick this guy!! That being said, you can tell that he loves what he does. He speaks with passion and gets his point across clear and concise.
Bryant Soto
February 25, 2022 at 9:23 pm
The Frog Random Process was a bit of a mind bender if you think about: The frog will not only reach its original starting position, but also reach EVERY point even though there will always be another point to be reached. It’ll take a long time, but it will do so.
graham godfrey
February 25, 2022 at 9:54 pm
a misleading thumb nail next time talk about the lead question please.
yes no
February 25, 2022 at 9:57 pm
What is the chances of this guy looking exactly what you thought a Statistician would look like 😂🤣😅
Qey Shinkurt
February 25, 2022 at 10:22 pm
My guy looks like what I imagine a statistician to look like
G
February 25, 2022 at 10:31 pm
13% – 52% 😀
WongWu
February 25, 2022 at 11:09 pm
Nobody else found it funny that he called the first guy “king d weeb” instead of “king dweeb”? lol, shows where his mind is
coby111
February 25, 2022 at 11:50 pm
What a cool guy
Cryptic Nomad
February 26, 2022 at 12:45 am
When it comes to roulette I don’t know the probability but I know the probably: The casino is probably going to keep your money
ohskynyrdlynyrd
February 26, 2022 at 1:02 am
Really cool
rooks
February 26, 2022 at 1:46 am
Here’s a hot take. Probability is a pseudoscience. Everything is predetermined because in order for something to happen, something has to have caused it to happen. Otherwise, why would it have happened? There’s is no chance whether you get struck by lightning, you just will or won’t. Everyone that has got struct by lightning was already destined to be struct by lightning because that’s where their life led them to.
It’s not up to chance. Your existence was already going to happen since the creation of the universe.
[TRCZ] NoidEXE
February 26, 2022 at 5:40 am
For the question about the consecutive plane crashes you can think about it this way:
Let’s say you have an average chance of being in a plane crash of 1/100. So for two planes it’d be 1/100 * 1/100 = 1/10000
Now what are the odds of being in a plane crash a second time.
Well for the first plane the chances are no longer 1/100. For events in the past chances are either 100%(did happen) or 0% (didn’t happen).
So the total chances are 100/100 * 1/100 = 1/100 so past events have zero effect. They’re the equivalent of multiplying the probability by 1.
Now let’s assume one of the
Robert R
February 26, 2022 at 5:50 am
There was always a 100% chance he would see dad’s cousin Phil because the Universe is deterministic and there was nothing else that could possibly have happened 😏
Jorge Zazueta
February 26, 2022 at 7:13 am
“what’s the most unlikely thing that’s ever happened to you”
“I ran into someone i knew”
David Flanders
February 26, 2022 at 7:41 am
His answer on the Powerball wasn’t very good. It’s actually just as likely to get any 6 numbers as it is to get 6 in a row… It just seems weird. But 3 7 24 36 39 and 42 is just as likely to occur as 2 3 4 5 6 7
Czeckie
February 26, 2022 at 9:24 am
Jeffrey Rosenthal wrote few great books. My favourite is his textbook on mathematical probability theory – guy has a talent for being succinct yet rigorous. If you don’t need an actual serious textbook, for leisure reading I recommend his ‘Struck by Lightning’ that’s for general audience.
nunya beeswax
February 26, 2022 at 10:24 am
10:12 the frog is 100% likely to return to the center.. because going left or right is a 50/50 decision! otherwise it wouldn’t. but why explicitly state that, when every decision between two things is 50/50 ^^
GargantuanBreadfruit
February 26, 2022 at 10:35 am
Ok, but I need the video proving why 10:16 is true
Jose Sanchez
February 26, 2022 at 11:47 am
“Take it friends, arm yourselves with knowledge” -Spongebob s1e7 That was a big and important take I got on this episode. Understanding things in a mathematical sense can really bring you down to reality. Any over-sensationalized take or advert falls flat against the face of a learned person. It might be easy at that point to react with cynicism but it is better to spread understanding instead for a more just and grounded future.
Victor Pluntky
February 26, 2022 at 1:20 pm
Lol, accidently had it set to 1.25 speed. Thought this guy was just an insanely fast talker….
FamousCloud
February 26, 2022 at 1:57 pm
This is an excellent episode
strk
February 26, 2022 at 2:09 pm
pretty cool
Anh Thơ Phạm
February 26, 2022 at 2:26 pm
He reminds me of Jimmy Kimmel
Darkev
February 26, 2022 at 3:50 pm
14:45 I believe he got that one wrong; the conditional probability of you crashing a second time (in a given period of time) given that you’ve already crashed before is actually different than not ever crashing before.
jaspreet singh
February 26, 2022 at 4:22 pm
why is kelsey grammer teaching me stats?
danny greco
February 26, 2022 at 7:23 pm
There’s no way this guy isn’t blazed
C
February 26, 2022 at 7:29 pm
Why you’re here: 7:41
Joshua Emmanuel
February 26, 2022 at 8:01 pm
This is golden. Wow.
Amauta
February 26, 2022 at 9:57 pm
I hope one day to be as excited about anything as he is about his passion.
WinterrisTrash
February 26, 2022 at 10:13 pm
ok I love listening to ppl talk about their passions and all and i dont mean to be rude but why does he sound so out of breath
Youn Gu
February 26, 2022 at 10:25 pm
what are the chances that he went to Disney World and it turns out to be Disneyland!
Winter
February 26, 2022 at 11:11 pm
saw the thumbnail and I stg he’s literally big ed
Jerry Rodriguez
February 26, 2022 at 11:18 pm
This one was a close favorite
Manuel Salazar
February 26, 2022 at 11:20 pm
Brillant !
xsplashbluex
February 26, 2022 at 11:31 pm
12:41
Wished my teacher explained it like that 5 years ago
MrAyrit
February 27, 2022 at 2:01 am
I like this guy.
Olivia Kroger
February 27, 2022 at 3:26 am
okay but can someone tell me where i can buy that frog teddy x
Simone Lombardo
February 27, 2022 at 4:25 am
This was my favorite so far, really nice!
X I I
February 27, 2022 at 4:25 am
imma be real, everything on earth is a 50/50!
Ryan Perez
February 27, 2022 at 6:47 am
For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;
Romans 3:23
Jesus lives
Jesus Christ is Lord
Jesus loves you repent
You’re a sinner in need of a Savior
Schobe-wan Kenobi
February 27, 2022 at 7:07 am
This guy is awesome
Van Vlear Music
February 27, 2022 at 7:30 am
I love this guy
Awkwardly Cast
February 27, 2022 at 7:57 am
Heliocentric spinning moving globe is a lie. Earth is flat and stationary.
Timothy Moore
February 27, 2022 at 8:08 am
I’m glad he touched a bit on “Combinatorics” for the viewers, really shows how many possible combinations and probabilities of events there are, if we are thinking about all the different aspects of the situation 🙂
Moon Bull
February 27, 2022 at 10:10 am
You lost me at “statistics”
Franc Lipovnik
February 27, 2022 at 11:00 am
Is this guy crazy? The next person I meet will have less chance of becoming POTUS than me winning the lottery with a single ticket
Szymon Kozak
February 27, 2022 at 11:42 am
It’s scary that i understand his static language
Bob Villa
February 27, 2022 at 3:07 pm
It would be statistically less likely for me to get into a second plane crash if I had already been in one since I wouldn’t be getting on anymore planes.
john hartman
February 27, 2022 at 3:52 pm
The hair is statistical. BUT, if you flip a coin exactly the same way each time, it leaves the statistical world. I do respect chance, but I also question its use in Quantum Mechanics. I think that there is a misunderstood mechanism that finds answers in statistics, so that’s where the science is drawn, because that math allows them to publish papers. I believe in small mechanisms of cause.
Hisoka
February 27, 2022 at 4:35 pm
He looks exactly like the stats professor I imagined in my head. What are the odds of that?
Studeb
February 27, 2022 at 5:06 pm
Great video, although you should add to that being born on January 10 thing that couples like to time having children early in the year, so the chance of having three at that date are probably between 10-100 greater for that alone, and a lot smaller at having three on say the 10th of November.
Esteban Nicrosi
February 27, 2022 at 5:41 pm
Nobody asked the question staticians like most to answer: “what’s the difference between possibility and probability?”
Chris F
February 27, 2022 at 7:14 pm
he looks like he would be a high school janitor and im ok with that.
Ahmad Yehia
February 27, 2022 at 7:18 pm
what are the odds he’s a serial killer
dyno mike
February 27, 2022 at 9:50 pm
My father used to say that 85.73 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot.
John B
February 27, 2022 at 10:42 pm
Does Professor Rosenthal have a Youtube channel?
Mervyn Ye
February 27, 2022 at 11:16 pm
If you’re in a plane crash, you’re less likely to be alive or want to go on another plane, so I would say that you’re less likely to be on another plane crash, haha.
tmusic99
February 28, 2022 at 7:00 am
Some mental gymnastics to get the day started.
The two infant deaths (): the probability calculation is based on the assumption of independent events. If the events are not independent (common cause failure) the probability calculation is not valid. Among common cause failures is murder but there is array of others such as common genetic deficiencies. A common cause failure is more probable than two coincidental independent events. Proving beyond reasonable doubt is not easy.
P. DriZzle
February 28, 2022 at 8:19 am
Im a casino dealer. I can answer the roulette question. There’s 38 numbers, we pay you 35.
No one star
February 28, 2022 at 8:20 am
I wish more people just used ‘common sense’ to realize when things are NOT related. They rarely do.
That said, after 30+ years of fairly bad luck (LOL)… I don’t see how my chances will improve. Not because the unlucky events are all RELATED, but simply because it’s now happened *SO* much, I can’t imagine how reality could be any different. Again, it’s just REALITY. Really weird, too. FEELS like a ‘curse’, but, obviously it’s just reeaaally, reeeeeeally, really bad luck. Over decades.
Fun stuff.
🐉✨🐉✨🐉✨
Street Guru
February 28, 2022 at 8:57 am
Yeah. He just looks like a maths guy.
mtsupreme
February 28, 2022 at 9:41 am
The first tweet was obvious bait. Come on lol
N0HAND
February 28, 2022 at 10:02 am
Maby in the family it is more common to make the desicion of getting a baby in the Summer for exampl
Brandy Rose
February 28, 2022 at 10:10 am
The Disney World thing was interesting because a similar thing happened to me but at Disneyland(well DCA). I ran into my choir friend at California Adventure. We were in the same line at the same time. I didn’t even realize he was there until he called my name. I looked up and was like “woah what are you doing here?! What’s up?!” 😂👌🏻
Rish
February 28, 2022 at 1:05 pm
The birthday one is interesting because certain months (i.e. September) are more common for birthdays. So could you weight the probability based on that sort of information, or would that be wrong?
Jose Lara
February 28, 2022 at 1:17 pm
Regarding stochastic process will the frog still return to the same location on an infinitely long line or do we assume it’s finite?
oritsela
February 28, 2022 at 1:35 pm
I really enjoyed this. On another note, is anyone missing Victor M Sweeney?
Soakingbook
February 28, 2022 at 2:11 pm
Thought he was a more frazzled Kelsey Grammar for a moment.
IAMDigiMortal
February 28, 2022 at 2:24 pm
Fraiser really let himself go
Shawn Cooley
February 28, 2022 at 3:17 pm
Airplane crash scenario. I agree and disagree. I totally agree that the plane doesn’t know.. etc. My point boils down to human behavior.
Agree. Independent events have equal chances. See roulette, and even gamblers fallacy for those that dont understand this part.
Disagree. If we set the odds of Random Joe(sorry joe), being in a plane crash at 1/x, then his chances of being in 2, would be just slightly rarer than 1(x^2), with independent events explanation. We would then be able to do a cross section of the population and find a certain % of people that have been in 2 plane crashes. The trick here is “plane crashes”, what are Joe’s chances of surviving the first one? What are the chances that he survived, and still flies?
I feel that poor Joe’s chances of being in 2 crashes would be less than 1/(x^2), because of things other than statistics, that are being discussed here.
Great video, hope to see more!
Mikey Moose
February 28, 2022 at 3:56 pm
King Dee Weeb 😀
Benjamin Tang
February 28, 2022 at 4:20 pm
As a U of T kid, God knows how many hours and days I have spent staring at this face.
G_N_Party
February 28, 2022 at 4:27 pm
What about FBI criminal statistics?
Kris B
February 28, 2022 at 4:34 pm
1:07 pretty much sums up the knowledge of the average person on social media.
Alexander Carson
February 28, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Kelsey Grammer?
Rhymes With Carbon
February 28, 2022 at 5:32 pm
I like blackjack because, unlike almost every other game in the casino, there are a lot of times where the odds are with the player.
Raghy78d
February 28, 2022 at 5:42 pm
8:54 Not sure this explanation is as good. The bookies don’t want the same amount of money on both sides, they want the same amount of expected payout on both sides.
Glenn Gentzke
February 28, 2022 at 6:29 pm
I wish there was a better discussion around the chances of 3 family members having the same birthday at 11:25. Factors like holidays, seasons in the family’s location (if co-located), religion, etc can have an huge impact on timing of conception and general health and I’m willing to bet that pushes birthdays into significant groups. Birthdays aren’t completely random.
Kasper Prindal-Nielsen
February 28, 2022 at 7:29 pm
I would argue Bayesian statistics even predicts that you are actually more likely to get in a plane crash if you have already been in one. The idea being that your behaviour somehow predisposes you to getting into plane crashes. This could for an example be because of the plane routes you frequent.
TCPUDPATM PORTS
February 28, 2022 at 10:03 pm
@1:10 – Careful, you’re attacking how almost ALL of America seems to come to conclusions 🤣
dmorga1
February 28, 2022 at 10:46 pm
The one thing that’s driving me nuts here is “data” is plural. It’s not “the data is. . .” It’s “the data are. . .”
Brandon C
March 1, 2022 at 1:24 am
Nice to see Ron Jeremy doing well
Tristan Lopez
March 1, 2022 at 9:48 am
Yo that Disney World story and his calculation was sick 🙂
localtoaster
March 1, 2022 at 10:23 am
hi what are the chances of me finding true love frfr
Mohammad Alaa Elghamry
March 1, 2022 at 11:22 am
Extremely useful, very precise, straight forward and every question is very well explained, thank you.
flatlanding
March 1, 2022 at 11:56 am
the ‘two babies died of sids’ is especially strange because the prosecution assumed that the events were only dependent if she was a murderer. In fact, since the cause of SIDS is necessarily unknown, it isn’t obvious or known whether the probabilities were independent. For example, say she had undocumented or even undiscovered genetic defect which made it much much more likely for her children to die in their sleep. Then her probability of having 2 kids die of SIDS would also be much much higher. Without knowing what the causative factor is, there is really no reason to assume that the events are independent.
mikontisott
March 1, 2022 at 1:09 pm
what a great teacher
j.kenneth fraac
March 1, 2022 at 1:59 pm
bookies are not trying to balance the books. that’s a common myth. they’re trying to maximise profit and minimise risk
Br1gHtBVrN
March 1, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Trumps presidency saw crime rate rise. It only took a few years.
Sine Nomine
March 1, 2022 at 4:37 pm
this guy rules please bring him back
Guilherme Silva
March 1, 2022 at 5:20 pm
Thank you for the video Jack Nicholson
Mach
March 1, 2022 at 5:57 pm
Until now, I didn’t know a statistitian was a specific occupation, yet this guy looks exactly like one.
John R
March 1, 2022 at 6:14 pm
Imagine having your two babies die, then you get called a murderer and spend years in prison.
Garrett Jones
March 1, 2022 at 6:21 pm
My being just can’t accept that someone who’s been in a plane crash isn’t statistically less likely to be in one in the future, yes the plane doesn’t know, but it’s also so rare? That one really hurts me
Robson Clark
March 1, 2022 at 6:30 pm
This was great, I love statistics and they had some cool questions and answers here.
larkos
March 1, 2022 at 6:49 pm
Spaghett
monkerud2108
March 1, 2022 at 7:14 pm
I’ve read through so many web casino rules that I’ve pretty much given up finding positive explanation values for strategies, they are nearly always covered by the small writing. for example if you had a 200% bonus but you have to play with it 27 times to be able to take the profits/losses and leave then maybe you can make money by playing roulette with betting on both red and black always and ending up with an average higher than the initial input while playing over and over with a loss of so and so on average per bet, the thing is they will have small writing saying roulette only counts 50% towards the bonus requirement ect, they are nearly always designing games and policies such that its impossible to make money on average. the exceptions get closed pretty fast because smart people spot them.
monkerud2108
March 1, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Expectation values *
Michael Meyer
March 1, 2022 at 8:05 pm
If a person was in one plane crash, they are unlikely to be in a second because they are likely dead.
Great episode. Mr. Rosenthal was amazing!
Styles Marshall
March 1, 2022 at 8:55 pm
The thing I love so much about statistics is that it builds off of common sense. If you can ask yourself a question, then you can compute statistics.
Jacek Bułatek
March 1, 2022 at 8:55 pm
yea this guy was wrong twice.
1. probability of 3 people being born on the same day is not (1/365)^3
2. probability of numbers in lottery being in order does not depend on rules of choosing and it is exactly as likely as any other set of numbers.
Alex Tompkins
March 1, 2022 at 11:01 pm
“its not incredible that it happens but it’s still pretty cool when it does happen to you” is the perfect way to sum up the concept of probability of one thing happening exactly vs it happening sometime to someone. brilliant
radikalModerate
March 1, 2022 at 11:19 pm
math is not science though, it’s engineering.
Ororo Munroe
March 2, 2022 at 12:34 am
I wish he covered how one can lie with statistics and how important it is to research who is funding a study. There are a lot of people justifying pure nonsense online and using “studies” to do it without taking these baseline considerations into play.
Sendai Kid
March 2, 2022 at 12:45 am
To get (or give) an idea of lottery improbability, ask a 6-digit lottery ticket holder how likely is it that 6 consecutive numbers would come up and they would (probably) say very unlikely. But it is the same probability as for any other group of numbers. And more likely that you won’t have to share the prize because it is less likely that people would choose those numbers than if they chose randomly.
Ass Balm
March 2, 2022 at 1:25 am
This is absolutely wonderful, I can tell he’s a great professor the way he can explain things but really be full of passion for what he’s talking about 🙂
Whitsoxrule1
March 2, 2022 at 1:30 am
The Sally Clark case that he described is just so incredibly tragic. This poor woman went through the horrendously unlucky and traumatizing experience of losing both children to bad luck, AND was then persecuted, vilified, and imprisoned as a murderer.
Youtube Comments
March 2, 2022 at 2:23 pm
“Is it statistically less likely to be in a plane crash if you’ve already been in one”
Yes. Dying, being mangled, or developing a fear of flying in response to the plane crash will reduce your odds of flying.
Beullo MKL
March 2, 2022 at 2:33 pm
omg, that frog is so cute, where can I buy that❤
Arthzil
March 2, 2022 at 2:38 pm
Statisticians are the #1 enemy in woke USA.
Greg Anthony Harris
March 2, 2022 at 2:51 pm
Kelsey Grammer looks so different with long hair!
Christopher Jared
March 2, 2022 at 3:21 pm
I wanna see experts being experts. Just them in their respective fields being passionate.
Max Sznaza
March 2, 2022 at 4:17 pm
More plz
zooty
March 2, 2022 at 4:21 pm
I like his cute frog plushie
imnotgay_butineedthemoney
March 2, 2022 at 4:31 pm
I love seeing homie talk about stats.
Adam Janowski
March 2, 2022 at 4:37 pm
I like this guy
Benjamin
March 2, 2022 at 4:47 pm
Strippers are pole experts, interview them next!
socaliguy81
March 2, 2022 at 5:02 pm
Roulette is beatable, but you have to be at a busy casino with several active tables, and they have to use the boards that show the last 10 or so numbers. Then, simply wait for a streak. Either a red or black streak, even or odd streak, or what I call a “stagger”. If you see 5 in a row hit the same color, or an odd or even, then you bet against it to break the streak. If you see a staggering (ie red/black/red/black/red/black or odd/even/odd/even/odd/even) then you bet against it by betting on it hitting 2 in a row. If you miss the bet, keep doubling your bet and attacking. Betting outside usually requires a min $20 bet with a maximum of $300. Why a maximum? Because they know this stat loophole exists. The last things to keep in mind are that the number boards are “for entertainment purposes only” according to a MGM pit boss after I complained about the boards not being accurate after they wiped me out on a fake streak. As far as I’ve seen, MGM is the only casino with inaccurate number boards. Lastly, insure your bets with a $5 chip splitting the 0/00 spots ; )
Redonk
March 2, 2022 at 5:20 pm
Political polls are heavily influenced by the people running the poll. Seriously, I signed up on yougov before to get paid for taking surveys, and the political ones were basically trick questions. When I raised these concerns to others in chat, I was basically told that they pay for results. If you wanted to convince others that more people supported your position, and your poll shows otherwise, you’re probably not going to publish the results or use that service again.
LednacekZ
March 2, 2022 at 5:21 pm
the odds of lottery draw to be 5,6,7,8,9,10 are the same as any other combination. People just think that the significance of numbers being one after another has some sort of impact.
Dee Ree
March 2, 2022 at 6:05 pm
1:24
I mean if you have a brain you know what he’s insinuating here lol.
Thomas Lambin
March 2, 2022 at 6:22 pm
Thank you senpai
gloverelaxis
March 2, 2022 at 6:35 pm
lmao the first tweet is a really obvious joke! how on earth did you not realise that??
Night Stick
March 2, 2022 at 6:37 pm
It’s always interesting how a specific outcome can be so incredibly unlikely, but once you generalize the slightest bit it’s suddenly not so unlikely.
Like the birthday one, it’s incredibly unlikely that two people in a room would be born on the fifth of April. It’s a million times more likely that two people are born on the same day though.
Krydolph
March 2, 2022 at 6:56 pm
That is one of the reasons I always buy my lottery tickets online 😀
Dale Leer
March 2, 2022 at 6:56 pm
My aunt had 2 daughters born 4 years apart, all born on the same day as she was.
Steph Nuggs
March 2, 2022 at 7:47 pm
Dude, I loved you in Last Action Hero!
nancy8223
March 2, 2022 at 9:14 pm
Amazing tutorial
Chris Percy
March 2, 2022 at 10:43 pm
I was in your class “Why Numbers Matter?” Awesome!
Jim Flagg
March 2, 2022 at 10:47 pm
This is bringing back bad memories of my Stats class in college. Z scores, P values, and so on. I forgot all of that stuff. My teacher was Japanese. I can still remember how he said quarter.
Said Chammas
March 2, 2022 at 10:55 pm
12:00 unless it’s 100% random that’s not the case. The first and second generations could have timed their pregnancies around the same week/month to boost their chances that the 2nd and 3rd person are born around the same time as the first
SWEET AND SOUAH PORK
March 2, 2022 at 11:44 pm
I want to self-study statistics, where should I start?