Science & Technology
How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi
No one remembers when you’re right, but no one forgets when you’re wrong. Your local weather person knows that saying all too well. But while they take a lot of the heat (get it?), how much of it is actually justified? In this episode, Mona Chalabi looks at weather forecasting data to see how accurate…
Science & Technology
Lightspeed’s Strategy For Reaching Founders Beyond X
“If you can build credibility and trust even when they’re still on Instagram and TikTok…you’re already getting in front of them before they’ve migrated to the tech Twitter world.” Lightspeed’s Claire Zau and Josh Machiz tell Equity host Dominic-Madori Davis all about courting the “tech curious” early, on this week’s Equity podcast.
Science & Technology
What Going Viral Taught This Lightspeed VC About AI
She started posting as a side project. Now Lightspeed’s Claire Zau says it’s given her real-time visibility into how normal people (not just tech X) actually feel about AI. The Equity podcast digs into why that direct feedback loop changed how she invests.
Science & Technology
The legal mistakes that can sink your startup before series A with Kristina Subbotina, Lexsy
Setting up a sound legal foundation could be what saves a startup down the line. A missing founder vesting agreement, an unclear IP agreement, or a messy cap table can derail fundraising, spark co-founder disputes, or even kill an otherwise promising company before it has a chance to scale. In this episode of Build Mode,…
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Jae KiDd N His 508Cents
November 23, 2021 at 4:27 pm
I would say the weather forecast is about 50 to 60% accurate
Super Specialty
November 23, 2021 at 4:32 pm
Forecasting is like foreplay, there’s no guarantee… but still, there’s a possible chance of an outcome (pun intended)! ????????????????
Oliver Smith
November 23, 2021 at 7:31 pm
This is a family video, go easy lad.
Jane Kailey
November 23, 2021 at 4:32 pm
A “forecast” is—you know—a FORECAST. And years ago, forecasts WERE accurate.
Steven Hill
November 23, 2021 at 4:40 pm
When quantum computers become a reality we’ll be able to predict the weather months in advance in theory
Golden Insights Tarot
November 23, 2021 at 4:49 pm
Mind blowing!’ Did you know before time ⏰ was first counted time was already going’ who knows the actual time? living in the unknown ????????????
Danny Dreadnought
November 23, 2021 at 5:05 pm
You’ve just given me a lifetime of anxiety.
julian shepherd
November 23, 2021 at 4:52 pm
I’m good at weather forecast.
Tomorrow will be cool with showers/rain
Say that and I’m right about 90% of the time.
I do live in the far north of Scotland so it’s cheating
SUPRATIM CHOUDHURY
November 23, 2021 at 5:01 pm
Are you open for a relationship? ????Joking. Never mind.. ????
Shloomy Shloms
November 23, 2021 at 5:11 pm
what idiots actually rely on a weather forecast more that 1 day in the future? or for that matter several hours in the future.
Fabio Cortivo
November 23, 2021 at 5:17 pm
Predicting the weather conditions in the netherlands is actually very easy.. ????
john altyn
November 23, 2021 at 5:18 pm
Have you considered we are a speck of dust speeding at roughly 68,000 mph or (110,000 km/ph) around a HUGE EXPLODING NUCLEAR BOMB? We live in this thing named “The Universe” and predicting anything regarding weather is always a guess.
jeff milligan
November 23, 2021 at 5:36 pm
This is news to someone?
Greasytech24
November 23, 2021 at 5:48 pm
sounds like something a weather person would say
Home Wall
November 23, 2021 at 6:12 pm
Imagine that….forecasts more than a few days ahead aren’t very accurate. But trust the science when it pretends it can.
Nagamendo
November 23, 2021 at 7:27 pm
Now, this were 2 wasted minutes of my life. Of course it is unlikely that we will ever know to 100% what the 10^44 air molecules are doing exactly. But we do not need that information either. I do not need to know what every single water molecule in a swimming pool is doing to calculate how long it takes to heat the pool up by 3 degrees. And yes, the closer I get to the very time I want to know the weather condition of, the more precise I will know what it is. I mean, when I look out of the window then I will know by 100% what the weather is actually. No big deal. But that is not what weather FORECAST is all about. Or is it?
Nekomancer
November 23, 2021 at 7:42 pm
What I hate is when they say it will be a clear day then it rains.
Mikael
November 23, 2021 at 7:49 pm
I get that the weather forecast isn’t great a week in advance, but when it says “No rain all day” while it’s currently raining outside I feel like I’m entitled to be a bit pissed.
Martin
November 23, 2021 at 9:01 pm
It seems to me that the weather predictions have consistently got worse over time. I ride a motorcycle and particularly this past year I’ve been rained in when it’s supposed to be sunny and prepared for wet weather only to be faced with glorious sunshine. Its just wrong what feels like 90% of the time. I’ve checked the weather apps, often different ones predicting completely different weather – don’t care about temperature, it’s more about will I get wet – and too often I’ve got wet unexpectedly and been overheating when I’m expecting to get wet! It can’t be more wrong. I’ve even looked at the app saying sunshine 5% chance of rain and its actually raining – and vice versa… Weather prediction seems pointless. The UK met office got a new super computer in the last couple of years and in my view, predictions have got worse.
Poetry Flynn
November 24, 2021 at 10:49 am
Climate Change will do that.
Olando Anônimo
November 23, 2021 at 9:27 pm
What annoys me is how my iPhone is wrong, even in real time.
Dynasty2201
November 23, 2021 at 10:22 pm
As a Brit, what’s an accurate forecast?
Lucas Santoro
November 24, 2021 at 5:35 am
There’ll be raining
KP818
November 27, 2021 at 5:35 pm
Rain every other day if not every.
That’s the forecast
Johnny
November 23, 2021 at 10:40 pm
So this whole video is here to say “it’s hard to do weatherforecast but its easier if we don’t try to predict too far in the future”? wow sensational video…
Andrés Miraglia
November 23, 2021 at 10:56 pm
It is incredible that we have to explain this sort of things to people, but then, hey, we spent the better part of two years explaining to them how good and useful it is to wash hands and vaccinate…
SommyBliss Nriama
November 23, 2021 at 10:56 pm
The title should be *why weather forecasts can’t be accurate,* because in the end, she didn’t answer the question.
rmoore7
November 24, 2021 at 12:44 am
As a person that’s lived through over 50 hurricane seasons in Florida not only am I grateful for our weather forecasters, but from my perspective I’m convinced there’s been a significant improvement in accuracy and predictions over that time.
Salt Sister
November 24, 2021 at 4:16 am
get that the weather forecast isn’t great a week in advance, but when it says “No rain all day” while it’s currently raining outside I feel like I’m entitled to be a bit pissed.
h4tt0ri
November 24, 2021 at 7:26 am
wow 1 minute TED video. you’re outdoing yourself.
0 0
November 24, 2021 at 7:41 am
She is horrible. I never learn anything. Dislike ????????
Waste of time
Norse
November 24, 2021 at 11:59 am
The thing I like about Linus Torvalds is that he is an actual Computer science engineer and doesn’t LARP as a virologist or eugenecist.
Jesse W.
November 24, 2021 at 3:31 pm
So i guess predicting global warming or cooling or whatever the supposed “climate crisis” is now is also inaccurate?
MS
November 25, 2021 at 1:21 am
the weather network is pretty accurate. about 90% accurate.
Andrew Gedman
November 25, 2021 at 4:05 am
I take this as a way to justify procrastination.
The Freshest
November 25, 2021 at 5:01 am
Also living organisms can change the molicules in the atmo even if we knew their properties. Like massive forests (and humans)
Noukz
November 25, 2021 at 4:39 pm
How is this topic relevant to the othewise spot-on “Am I normal” series? *thinkingemoji*
Stefan Nikola
November 25, 2021 at 11:32 pm
We need to hold psychologists and therapists up to this kind of scrutiny. They aren’t accurate either.
Kevin Lim
November 26, 2021 at 7:08 pm
50% accuracy.
Rain vs No Rain
Cloudy vs Non cloudy
Wind vs no Wind
????
Avi Richar
November 27, 2021 at 5:23 am
This is silly. The number of molecules is irrelevant. We actually have science that deals with reality on scales larger than the single molecule, duh. And 3 degrees off the day before, when it’s *every* single day wrong (plus that 7+ degrees off a few days before) means the *model* is wrong. And obviously, the model is not considering climate change, especially the warming part.
Yes we can’t get it perfect, but by major differences that are actually on the scales that are *known* to have changed, in the last 30 years, 50+ years, etc., since apparently these weather models were based that are still being used, is really the problem, clearly.
It’s time to catch up to what’s actually happening. And stop denying the actual accurately modellable realities, in the models themselves. We know how heat works, and humidity, and wind, and etc etc etc. That doesn’t take “knowing exactly where each molecule is at every moment.” That’s not how science works.