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Sports Statistician Answers Sports Math Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

Statistical analyst and ex-NBA assistant coach Dean Oliver visits WIRED to answer sports math questions from the internet. What’s the most efficient shot to take on a basketball court? Are NFL running backs historically undervalued at the moment? Why are there more no-hitters in baseball lately? And statistically speaking who’s better: LeBron James or Michael…

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Statistical analyst and ex-NBA assistant coach Dean Oliver visits WIRED to answer sports math questions from the internet. What’s the most efficient shot to take on a basketball court? Are NFL running backs historically undervalued at the moment? Why are there more no-hitters in baseball lately? And statistically speaking who’s better: LeBron James or Michael Jordan? Answers to these questions and more await on Sports Math Support.

Director: Justin Wolfson
Director of Photography: Constantine Economides
Editor: Matthew Colby
Expert: Dean Oliver
Line Producer: Joseph Buscemi
Associate Producer: Brandon White
Production Manager: D. Eric Martinez
Production Coordinator: Fernando Davila
Casting Producer: Nick Sawyer
Camera Operator: Cloud
Gaffer: Gautam Kadian
Sound Mixer: Rebecca L. ONeil
Production Assistant: Albie Smith
Post Production Supervisor: Alexa Deutsch
Post Production Coordinator: Ian Bryant
Supervising Editor: Doug Larsen
Additional Editor: Paul Tael
Assistant Editor: Billy Ward

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113 Comments

113 Comments

  1. sar480

    October 17, 2023 at 1:05 pm

    In Ben Simmons case the free throw pressure affected him 100% cause he stopped taking any by sitting out a whole season.

    • Stud Gerbil

      October 17, 2023 at 7:00 pm

      Ben shows up on a lot of highlight … and lowlight clips. He was amazing when he was on, but man when he wasn’t, it was awful.

  2. Yashvardhan Raju

    October 17, 2023 at 1:06 pm

    moneyball walked so this guy could run

  3. michael patalano

    October 17, 2023 at 1:07 pm

    No disrespect, but a Wizard’s coach is rough

  4. Po Pov

    October 17, 2023 at 1:15 pm

    Thought this would be about basketball.

  5. Hotdog

    October 17, 2023 at 1:51 pm

    Nice vid

  6. quaoar

    October 17, 2023 at 1:58 pm

    There is one important thing that is no statistic.
    One of them will do whatever it takes to win…the other will try his best and live with the results.

  7. Clyde The Bulldog

    October 17, 2023 at 2:15 pm

    Nerd

  8. Jacob Nielson

    October 17, 2023 at 2:16 pm

    Who are the Washington wizards?

  9. Jayesh Jadhav

    October 17, 2023 at 2:16 pm

    It would be awesome to have such a video with more world famous sports like Football(soccer), cricket, boxing etc..!

  10. tapiwanashe gwanzura

    October 17, 2023 at 2:17 pm

    needed more on CR7 and Messi issue

  11. Terrance Limpy

    October 17, 2023 at 2:38 pm

    Why didn’t I think about doing this when I signed up for college. Ugh.

  12. MrZrazies

    October 17, 2023 at 2:51 pm

    MJ was assassin player. He was dangerous. Lebron is power player.

    MJ made mvp players when Lebron recruits or join with mvp players.

  13. Joe

    October 17, 2023 at 2:52 pm

    The mid range shot is the most underrated shot 💯

  14. Isaac Fernandes

    October 17, 2023 at 2:58 pm

    90% of the video is Baseball and American Football. Couldn’t be any more boring. Nice click bait with the basketball and “Ex-NBA Coach”.

  15. kartaiss

    October 17, 2023 at 4:38 pm

    Me, a European, listening about baseball and American football: yes, those words probably exist

  16. Felipe

    October 17, 2023 at 6:04 pm

    “Sports”

  17. Everest Jarvik

    October 17, 2023 at 6:18 pm

    I’m not into sportsball even a little bit so this whole video was like hearing a different language

  18. packfan19281

    October 17, 2023 at 6:38 pm

    Get This guy on again

  19. Mike Stevens

    October 17, 2023 at 6:46 pm

    “the best measure we have for soccer performance for individuals, is goals.” is an outrageous simplification of one of the most if not the most data-driven sports in the world.

    • A L

      October 17, 2023 at 6:50 pm

      This dude’s knowledge checks out until they talk about the thing you know a lot about.

    • Stud Gerbil

      October 17, 2023 at 7:01 pm

      agreed, and this analyst certainly only works with the big three US sports nearly all the time.

    • Account for Comment

      October 17, 2023 at 9:05 pm

      I think he had a point. No matter how many data models the game produced, football is very subjective. How many times have you heard legends and former said Messi is the better player, but Ronaldo is the better goalscorer? Now they are saying Haaland is the better goalscorer while Mbappe is the more complete.

    • myyoutubechannel

      October 17, 2023 at 11:05 pm

      Outrageous. So defenders and midfielders always have bad performances according to how he measures performance. There are new stats like chances created, and possession value which are determining how scouting is done. This man does not know anything about soccer, he should have just said that.

    • Account for Comment

      October 17, 2023 at 11:37 pm

      @myyoutubechannel I think his point is that goal is the only objective reliable metric. A defender used to be measured by tackles, but now it became known that the better defender, the less tackles he had to make. The clean sheet can be attribute to the defensive midfielder or the goalkeeper or his partner or the tactics. A midfielder in a poccession-based team would make more passes than a counter-attack team, how do you define who is the better midfielder? We know Messi and Ozil has many assist, but they also provide the pre-assist that not many noticed.

    • Wei Xiong

      October 18, 2023 at 9:48 am

      The moment he said it the moment it showed that he doesn’t know football.

  20. posthocprior

    October 17, 2023 at 7:01 pm

    Regarding the question of offensive guard in (American) football, there are now many statistics that measure a player’s efficiency. These include, the speed of the guard, acceleration, the speed at which they can make an open tackle, closing speed of a tackle, etc. If you want to know more, google “NFL next gen stats”.

  21. UkroNazis_Started_The_War_Nov.2013_before_Ru_Came

    October 17, 2023 at 7:33 pm

    Baseball: a game of stats….. because the ball is never in play

  22. Whiskey Nixon

    October 17, 2023 at 9:54 pm

    Bro, I’m over here.

  23. Ian Cuspinera

    October 18, 2023 at 1:52 am

    1- this guy clearly doesn’t know football obviously because Ronaldo has about 30 more goals that Messi. I do consider Messi as the GOAT but if you’re gonna take goals as the measure, CR7 has more.
    2- Football has a lot of statistics, a massive amount tbh, this guy clearly doesn’t study the sport that much
    3- Even tho football has many statistics to be analyzed, it’s an sport less driven by them, something that becomes so boring about american sports is that they want to make everything about stats, percentages, etc.

    • Processing

      October 18, 2023 at 8:11 am

      I wouldn’t say he doesn’t know sport, it’s just that he’s American.

      This is the reason why the vast majority of questions are either Basketball, Baseball or American Football related.

      They don’t care about hockey and football there as much as we do in Europe.

    • strajder91

      October 18, 2023 at 11:31 am

      @Processing His answer to the question about Ronaldo and Messi proves that he obviously knows little about football.

  24. Elena

    October 18, 2023 at 2:30 am

    You DO realise that there’s life and sport outside America and non-Americans watch youtube too? 99% of this video is about American sport that no one in the world cares for.

  25. SupermanHopkins

    October 18, 2023 at 8:21 am

    I was a sports statistician for one of the biggest media companies. Everything this guy just said is accurate, especially the part about how you get into the profession.

    • Cajun Tam

      October 18, 2023 at 8:40 pm

      Want to get into this field
      Any suggestions?

  26. Nam Vu

    October 18, 2023 at 8:25 am

    0:16 most efficient shot in basketball
    4:21 defense vs offense: offense wins regular season, defense wins play offs

  27. gwaptiva

    October 18, 2023 at 10:15 am

    What do you study? Andy Zaltzman studied Classics at Oxford. I think studying statistics is the thing to study

  28. Patrick McCutchan

    October 18, 2023 at 10:44 am

    The wisest thing every individual should think off, is creating multiple streams of income rather depending on the government to create job opportunities expecially now the country is going through economical crisis

  29. Rafael Ramos

    October 18, 2023 at 12:52 pm

    To me, Sports are bettter if you enjoy the moment, I don’t think about the numbers 😆

  30. Ben Mark Films

    October 18, 2023 at 5:04 pm

    You think this stuff about American sports blows your mind… just talk to a cricket statistician. The game is a mecca for stats because they insane amount of variables

  31. Bohlale Mokoena

    October 18, 2023 at 7:26 pm

    I will forever appreciate Wired for calling it Twitter instead of X.

  32. Tanner Hawkins

    October 18, 2023 at 9:22 pm

    Great video, disappointed no hockey though!

  33. Michael Gregorio

    October 18, 2023 at 10:25 pm

    Did we really need a sports statician to tell us that the layup is the most efficient basketball shot?

  34. Apreche

    October 19, 2023 at 12:02 am

    Not even one ice hockey question. Shame!

  35. Henry Armendariz

    October 19, 2023 at 2:23 am

    Can’t tell if he’s talking to me or to the person next to the camera man 😂

  36. Bronze Comes Home

    October 19, 2023 at 3:40 am

    Incredibly disappointing at 3:43. Poster asks a great statistical question: when a shooter takes two free-throws in a down-by-one situation, is there a correlation between the success of the second shot and the success of the first? But in response, all we get is, “The second shot is usually easier and shooters under pressure do worse.”

    That’s not what the poster was asking. The question was, is there a relationship between the second shot and the first, not “which shot is easier to make?” The poster’s question is essentially, “are the trials (each free throw) dependent or independent?” I really would have hoped a professional statistician could have spoken more directly to a question like that.

  37. Noel Down

    October 19, 2023 at 3:51 am

    – How is Messi better than Ronaldo, statistically speaking?
    The sports statistician:
    – Goals 🤷

    • Jerome Clemente

      October 19, 2023 at 6:22 am

      Won’t blame him if he’s not familiar with football. He’s American after all. But for the rest of the questions, he did very well.

  38. Tayzzer

    October 19, 2023 at 4:28 am

    was that the same “moving on” byte every time? xD

  39. Edward Lee

    October 19, 2023 at 4:56 am

    Hi Dean 🏀🙂

  40. Diaz

    October 19, 2023 at 5:53 am

    Nobody
    Michael: Shut up Toby..
    😂😂😂

  41. David

    October 19, 2023 at 7:01 am

    *Bro said that statistically the most important metric for soccer is goals and Messi is better than Ronaldo because of that. But, uhmm… Ronaldo has scored more goals.*

    • Paul Martin

      October 20, 2023 at 3:04 pm

      It’s soccer so “Who cares?”.

  42. Dave Dee

    October 19, 2023 at 8:24 am

    Tell Karl Malone that assist don’t matter

  43. Travis H.

    October 19, 2023 at 8:45 am

    The benefit of switching pitchers more often that was not mentioned is that hitters tend to do much better by the 3rd time they face the same pitcher in the same game, not only the pitcher is getting tired, but the hitters also had 2 previous experiences fresh. By switching to a new pitcher, hitter’s previous experience gets nullified.

  44. Nathaniel Hendershott

    October 19, 2023 at 10:58 am

    Wonder how this guy does in his Fantasy League 🤔

  45. Bevan Worell

    October 19, 2023 at 11:02 am

    Wtf was the messi vs Ronaldo answer?? No mention of playmaking, goal contributions, trophies??? What a joke

  46. Blackjack

    October 19, 2023 at 11:13 am

    This is something that I have always wanted to explore, thank you wired for posting this video!

  47. jvalk18

    October 19, 2023 at 12:22 pm

    As a diehard Yankees fan, the notion that Jeter was a bad fielder is way overblown. Numbers don’t tell the whole story. Use your eyes!

    • Sheboygan Shovel

      October 19, 2023 at 4:04 pm

      Jeter ought to be credited for how smart a shortstop he was, but his range was poor. If you expand the conversation to ‘how much can my team get out of the guy playing shortstop’ Jeter moves way up in the rankings, though not ahead of Alex Rodriguez.

  48. Jorge

    October 19, 2023 at 1:08 pm

    I wrote a short paper for a sports analytics class arguing why the three-point shot was the most effecient (not including possibilities of fouls). Glad it was on the right path!

  49. Mel Jones

    October 19, 2023 at 2:09 pm

    WIRED IS A TRASH WOKE CORPORATION!!

  50. fishermanWyatt1989

    October 19, 2023 at 4:01 pm

    i like how the statistician fittingly uses the word “probably” so often

  51. Jonah Nelson

    October 19, 2023 at 4:39 pm

    Watching this vid is the closest I’ve ever gotten to understanding why people like sports

  52. Capitalist_rope_salesman

    October 19, 2023 at 7:45 pm

    I hope the Pardon My Take Boys do something with this.

  53. Spicy Salami

    October 20, 2023 at 12:37 am

    Dean is so cute bro

  54. ghork

    October 20, 2023 at 3:17 am

    This is just an American Sports statistician

  55. Be Like Water

    October 20, 2023 at 10:13 am

    Not a single question about the NHL??

  56. Antônio Gabriel Zeni Landim

    October 20, 2023 at 10:37 am

    Sports is a great way to get into statistics and programming. If you’re into football/soccer and want to learn some programmings and stats, there’s a good book on the topic. There’s some serious statistical and spatial models used in football with great success!

  57. Jo So

    October 20, 2023 at 12:06 pm

    Multiple Pitchers just kills Baseball. Never mind the Stats – if a Pitchers having a bad day or getting found out then you just replace him. And then you replace him. So its a Squad Game not a Team Game now and that is boring.

    • kdroll29

      October 21, 2023 at 12:20 pm

      this comment makes no sense.

    • saint

      October 23, 2023 at 5:03 pm

      you want to make a pitcher throw the whole game? If they have a bad day they will throw 300 pitches lol

  58. Alex

    October 20, 2023 at 1:07 pm

    I’m surprised that with the mentions of Jordan, LeBron and Jeter, that there’s only like 136 comments about it lol

    Edit: people also dont recognize that the Oakland As also had a pretty good pitching lineup too which def helped with getting this wins

    • kdroll29

      October 21, 2023 at 12:14 pm

      they had a great rotation and their shortstop, Miguel Tejada, won AL MVP that year. The book barely mentions any of that and the movie completely ignores it.

  59. FriskoDisko _

    October 20, 2023 at 1:27 pm

    Can we PLEASE have him back?! I loved this!

  60. Travis Harger

    October 20, 2023 at 2:49 pm

    Would have loved some Hockey stats mixed in here.

  61. toowarmtoohot

    October 20, 2023 at 5:00 pm

    Family lives in fairbanks, ak. Spent about a decade there. Can confirm, quite cold

  62. nacoran

    October 20, 2023 at 5:08 pm

    Pitcher wins have a correlation with how good they are, but there is also a correlation with how good the rest of the team is.

    • kdroll29

      October 21, 2023 at 12:13 pm

      came here to say this. Take two identical pitchers, the one with a better offense backing him up will have a better W/L record. Simple as that!

    • TJ Tribble

      October 21, 2023 at 2:30 pm

      It’s why King Felix was one of the best pitchers without a great win count. The Mariners just couldn’t score!

  63. More Hoops

    October 20, 2023 at 5:19 pm

    The most efficient shot in basketball is a free throw. How did you lose all credibility in 20 seconds

    • Kevin Eiford

      October 23, 2023 at 12:40 am

      He literally says he’s not counting free throws in the video

    • More Hoops

      October 23, 2023 at 12:51 am

      ​@Kevin Eiford timestamp? He doesn’t say it in the first 50 seconds when addressing the question

  64. Invox

    October 20, 2023 at 6:45 pm

    I hope he comes back.

  65. Dragon zzz

    October 20, 2023 at 8:03 pm

    You said sports and it’s all about basketball, too biased. There are other sports more popular than BB so you should include them as well like Football and Cricket. And when I say I football I mean real football not your American football

    • pingtv

      October 24, 2023 at 10:10 pm

      He’s the father of basketball analytics. Reasonable that the questions lean basketball heavy. TBF, the wire should probably indicate his expertise. Asking him about soccer is kinda tough b/c it’s clearly not his expertise

  66. Raghy78d

    October 21, 2023 at 12:55 am

    The one time I know a lot about a topic the expert fumbles the answer (Messi v. CR7). Now I’m wondering how often other experts give bad answers that I don’t notice cause I don’t know any better.

  67. Santosh Sankaran

    October 21, 2023 at 12:58 am

    Highly disagree with the idea that running backs are being devalued due to a recognition shift towards the offensive line. They aren’t getting paid because their production drops off a cliff within a few years after their rookie contracts, and it’s cheaper to draft another one in later rounds over paying them adequately. In other words, money.

    • naughtybynature999

      October 24, 2023 at 4:27 pm

      both can be true, not mutually exclusive points

  68. Sami Zein

    October 21, 2023 at 1:48 am

    Nerd

  69. RrMm

    October 21, 2023 at 3:25 pm

    No, the outcome of the first free throw shot does not impact the outcome of the second free throw shot because these are two independent events.

    • pingtv

      October 24, 2023 at 10:05 pm

      In the clutch, statistically there’s been a slight bump. Theoretically independent, but in this case things like heart rate as Dean said has small effects

  70. Ray Rodriguez

    October 21, 2023 at 4:29 pm

    When I thought of a cool math job, I didn’t think about this one. Interesting though

  71. maddy tarabbia

    October 21, 2023 at 6:58 pm

    I would love to see a pathologist! love these videos dearly

  72. lyndaster46

    October 21, 2023 at 7:00 pm

    i feel enlightened!! this was a very cool interview for us non sports nerd types. Very awesome. Thank you Coach Oliver

  73. Pedro Amargosa

    October 21, 2023 at 10:14 pm

    This dude doesn’t even know what DVOA is. He loses all credibility TBH

  74. Philip Hedden

    October 22, 2023 at 1:21 am

    I feel like this guy has a lot of knowledge on basketball and they chose to ask him questions outside his expertise.

    His soccer and baseball answers were odd and off base. No baseball statistician is attributing so much to the shift (everything we know says it’s overblown) and no soccer expert is just looking at goals.

    • pingtv

      October 24, 2023 at 10:04 pm

      Yea his deep expertise is NBA (considered the father of basketball analytics) and some football

  75. MvZ

    October 22, 2023 at 9:24 am

    I was expecting the answer to be: the free throw

  76. Nandhu paul

    October 22, 2023 at 1:19 pm

    This was a waste of time for anyone who isn’t North-American. 😐

  77. Emjay Lapus

    October 23, 2023 at 4:58 am

    Hope they get Scott Steiner for the next Sports Math Support

  78. Mae Milev

    October 23, 2023 at 2:00 pm

    Whats the fastest swim kick? Answer: dolphin kick! Not flutter!!

  79. Bruno Belchior

    October 24, 2023 at 9:30 am

    saying “MJ and LbJ” are almost the same is criminal.

  80. GMAMEC

    October 24, 2023 at 10:10 am

    I’m not a huge sports fan, but I am fascinated with the statistics, analysis, psychology, and other complex factors. It helps with training, recruiting , historical statistics , and other useful outcomes.

  81. Mikie W

    October 24, 2023 at 2:54 pm

    I would say an underrated WR is average separation gained on a route run. It seems rather consistently that WRs in college with poor separation numbers tend to fail in the NFL

  82. fleezy, baby

    October 25, 2023 at 2:00 am

    7:00 the pitcher win rule is so odd. it seems designed specifically for closers.

  83. Jeff Smith

    October 25, 2023 at 7:35 am

    This guy must hit some crazy multis

  84. Marc Rego

    October 25, 2023 at 12:54 pm

    I would like to see a sports statistician answer whether he believes individual catch-all advanced stats (EPM, LEBRON, RAPTOR, or the more antiquated PER), particularly defensive catch-all stats, are useful to determine how good individual players are.

  85. Nobre Engenheiro

    October 25, 2023 at 2:39 pm

    Basketball
    00:00
    03:40
    06:20
    08:08
    09:25
    10:45

  86. Ryan Alexander Music

    October 25, 2023 at 3:36 pm

    Yeah I’m not trusting a guy who calls football “soccer”

  87. GTF

    October 25, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    The most efficient shot is the one that goes in.

  88. Fernando Cardenas

    October 25, 2023 at 8:08 pm

    I think your resumé is more impressive if you don’t mention the team you worked for 😅

  89. H Ansell

    October 25, 2023 at 9:01 pm

    Man there are so SO many metrics in football (soccer) to judge player performance than just “goals”. It doesn’t even account for the different roles and positions that players play. I love all of his analysis, but this one take is kinda ridiculous.

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Assistant Editor: Billy Ward

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