With birth rates falling, the worldwide human population is getting older and smaller. According to traditional thinking, this spells a future of labor shortages, bankrupt social security systems and overall economic collapse. Before you panic about the end of life as we know it, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba has a thoughtful playbook for managing the new normal – including ideas on the future of work and migration – and a reminder that a resilient future relies on present-day action.
If you love watching TED Talks like this one, become a TED Member to support our mission of spreading ideas:
Follow TED!
Twitter:
Instagram:
Facebook:
LinkedIn:
TikTok:
The TED Talks channel features talks, performances and original series from the world’s leading thinkers and doers. Subscribe to our channel for videos on Technology, Entertainment and Design — plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. Visit to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more.
Watch more:
TED’s videos may be used for non-commercial purposes under a Creative Commons License, Attribution–Non Commercial–No Derivatives (or the CC BY – NC – ND 4.0 International) and in accordance with our TED Talks Usage Policy: . For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), please submit a Media Request at
#TED #TEDTalks #population
Charles Cilek
October 3, 2023 at 7:12 pm
On the one hand it’s encouraging to finally see this being discussed.
On the other hand, it worries me that more effort isn’t being put into finding long-term solutions to what appears to be a downward population spiral.
We need to address what societal and economic issues discourage people from having kids now as well as retool our societal carrots and sticks to encourage people to have children.
There’s a way out of this! We just need to do the hard work to get there
Nostradumbass
October 3, 2023 at 7:13 pm
repealing the 19th amendment and bringing back the “rule of thumb” would solve all the worlds problems.
Gourav Misra
October 3, 2023 at 7:15 pm
VERY TRUE 🎉🎉 💜💜💜💜💜💜💜💜 SUPERNATURAL 🎉🎉 WATCHING FROM INDIA MA’AM 🎉🎉
Timothy Kim
October 3, 2023 at 7:35 pm
People today don’t understand critical thinking and that nothing is really univariate. Rates mean more than numbers.
Lucas Santoro
October 3, 2023 at 7:40 pm
I was reflecting on this lately since my dad and mom are close to retiremen age but not even close to financial independence. I believe I will be the one to take financial care of them when they are old (as I think it was for majority of human history, right?) and my sister could help if she thinks the same. If this is the “system” that is going to replace the government’s paychecks (since they don’t amount much) people might as well start having more children so that, if they love them enough not wanting anything in return, when the children grow up they might want to give back the support they received just I feel called to do even though I don’t have the obligation nor it is expected from my dad and mom.
Clouded leopard
October 3, 2023 at 7:42 pm
Scary woman
MegaWilderness
October 3, 2023 at 7:50 pm
To me you have described utopia with population decline. Have you bothered to do the same study for all the other species? The problem exists with our ponzi system of economics not with population decline
Natalie Rand
October 3, 2023 at 7:50 pm
Too many.
Keston Lashley
October 3, 2023 at 8:01 pm
Sounds like wanting “slavery again” 😳
B G
October 3, 2023 at 8:10 pm
No one talks about how many species are going EXTINCT because of humans! Presently there is a lack of housing for younger generations. We are slashing through land, cutting down forests to build Mac mansions for people. Cities are growing and bursting at the seams. If AI and robots are going to do human repetitive work… why do we need more people? It has always been the case that people from closer to the equator move north. This has been blocked by northern countries. Let’s calculate how many people have died in the Mediterranean trying to cross into Europe. I say its good that Europe and America are in population decline. The medical industrial complex is keeping people around for too long in unhealthy conditions. That they would have died from just 50 years ago. Humans are destroying the planet and will continue to do so if we have population growth.
Kritiker313
October 3, 2023 at 8:14 pm
Absurd! If you care about children and can think critically about the world, you might know to question Jennifer. Ask her why people in those developed countries are not having children. Also, we here in the US already work longer than people in every other major developed country. It’s what the rich want. They also want Jennifer to convince you to bring more children (workers) into the world even as our society continues to collapse. Who didn’t know.
Deep Ashtray
October 3, 2023 at 8:14 pm
This doesn’t really inspire confidence.
Elvies Mascarenhas
October 3, 2023 at 8:23 pm
Artificial womb is being created, under test phrases…. In Berlin, US, Britain
Johnny Cassidy
October 3, 2023 at 8:24 pm
There are too many people in this world, and very few with humanity
HomeDistiller
October 3, 2023 at 8:33 pm
The short answer is, both. Too many for the environment, not enough being born for economic growth and stability
Christian Williams
October 3, 2023 at 8:40 pm
Hmm she forgot that in the modern world 1 out of 3 males are infertile or having problems conceiving, and 1 out of 4 women are infertile or have trouble conceiving. Male sperm has gone down almost in half, and it is not getting any better, and just in the US more than 52% of children now have a chronic disease, and this number is growing fast. All form of sickness and chronic disease have gone up. Right now there has been a 79% growth in cancers of people under the age of 50 since the 1990’s. We are now seeing the collapse of the human race, and it wont take long before it all comes to an end. Most of this collapse is because we soiled our environment, and poison ourselves and nature. The chemical era promised us convenience and health, but instead has plagued us and destroyed our lives.
JR 22
October 3, 2023 at 8:40 pm
The population will decrease back to ~2billion, I hope we do it as humanely and sustainably as possible. And unicorns, lots of unicorns.
Carolejean6
October 3, 2023 at 8:54 pm
It’s up to God he’s in control ..
ytubeanon
October 3, 2023 at 8:57 pm
meh, androids will fill up our population, also there’s the issue of distribution, I usually feel like there are too many people in the wrong places… I’m reminded of the Black Plague that decimated the population, but in turn actually increased the value of each worker and better policies for them
yesmanfetrue
October 3, 2023 at 8:57 pm
Eugenics 101 , is she the new Malinda ?
Mariana RG
October 3, 2023 at 8:59 pm
Is she really making a case for us to work in our elderly years instead of, I don’t know, tax the rich? The never of these people.
Samuel Zev
October 3, 2023 at 8:59 pm
Declining population is a good sign of earth maintaining homeostasis to keep humans at bay from causing more damage to earth. Having less people means less problems and I like that
aven
October 3, 2023 at 9:02 pm
9:07 – Paraphrased, 65-74 year old’s are a “vast untapped resource” in a resilient world. Our system already has this built in as a feature instead of a bug. Sorry, but I don’t want to build a world where our elderly have to continue to work until they die.
Prateek Singh
October 3, 2023 at 9:20 pm
How about just removing the Capitalist economy – Consumerist culture ,
Fukuoka Kusuo
October 3, 2023 at 9:29 pm
The over population is so problematic in South Asia and Africa, I think.
Thanasis Zantrimas Documentaries greek subs
October 4, 2023 at 10:12 am
“Maybe even the United States”? That’s nice. Their military spending is meteoric compared to all other nations overall.
Jamesetal
October 4, 2023 at 10:35 am
Too few? Geez. And this is a TED talk? Walk away.
WelsThe3rd
October 4, 2023 at 10:41 am
Make housing & childcare less expensive!!!
PinkCarnation
October 4, 2023 at 10:45 am
Pfff the planet doesnt need more humans, the population does need to decrease dramatically if we want to survive without losing a quality of life. The ONLY ones who profit from population growth is cies and the government, more heads paying taxes, working to death and buying stuff.
Gaming Buster
October 4, 2023 at 11:05 am
I am constantly confused by the points she’s bringing up, it’s a lot of fearmongering when there’s plenty of thought-provoking socioeconomic discussion to be had on this topic. An AP Human Geography course I took in high school explains that in the 5th stage of growth on (forgot the model’s name) the population does decline because people are more educated, prosperous, and family plan more extensively so they can live however they want to in life. Some people have always wanted a family, and choose to have families, others don’t believe they can afford it or their lifestyles don’t condone a family life. What all of this means, is that once a nation reaches a certain point of prosperity, its populace does decline although they enjoy more comfort. So then the big question I have, and I’m sure others do too… is how to maintain certain systems with less people? Well thankfully this doesn’t happen at the same time, all across the world, so that all of our societal systems won’t be threatened simultaneously with a critical shortage of labor.. everywhere – instead this will happen slowly with the more dominant and developed countries, and in my opinion it will be REQUIRED to update status quo for the economic systems they use, with greater wealth distribution = higher pay for workers = more buying power and a steady level of interaction in good/service purchasing = ultimately more money saved for retirement as well. This is so broad, and I’m sure tens of thousands of pages have been written on this one topic alone…. it just really grinds my gears to see someone take the very point of the needle on this complicated matter and say something like “systems overload and break, higher labor costs (*cough*… should be normalized instead of corporate greed), which lead to inflation and that makes it even more expensive to have children”. It doesn’t make sense. The only number or statistic being looked at, is population, and cost of having kids. It’s so much bigger than that, and no we won’t be left on a planet barren and catastrophic because people have less children. We’ll end up in a very catastrophic situation from a changing climate wreaking havoc and causing mass strife while greedy people try to slap band aids on the looming threat and allow people to fall further into a pit of debt or difficulty while they’re left comfortable and with the only concern of how to maintain their comfort and wealth the longest while things get worse. This population infatuation that Elon Musk, this woman, and many others are pushing is extremely disheartening as it neglects another path forward of reshaping the economy to benefit all people in accordance with their input towards the common good. What do I know though. It’s one thing to be ignorant, but I’ll never allow myself to be penned as a bigot as I’ll always keep my mind open to learn.
Gaming Buster
October 4, 2023 at 11:10 am
“Only 10% of people over 65 still work…that is not gonna fly in a resilient world” – Bruh? That is an unacceptable way to “fix” this… issue? How does that fix population decline? It does not. It only forces people to work longer. Sounds a lot like “Yeah that’s right… keep working till your frail and in pain all over, we don’t want you to work so you can live, we want you to live so you can work honey :)” DISGUSTING.
Ashish Frost Mohanta
October 4, 2023 at 11:10 am
What’s up with the “infertility”! I couldn’t understand that! I mean what and how is the term being used here exactly!
Evolved Chicken
October 4, 2023 at 11:56 am
The term is quite general anyway. It just means how often or how little someone pumps out children during their lifetime. So it could be anything. Could be due to values (religious people for example would have the values to always reproduce and get married) , could be due to stressful living conditions like Japan, could be because you have so many other interests you can’t imagine putting aside 20 years of your life to take care of a new person, could be something that makes our sexual organs dysfunctional en masse etc. etc.
And she didn’t really specify much. Was more focused on “nu uh, we should have growing population and here’s what to do!”
Erik Dingeldein
October 4, 2023 at 11:15 am
A decreasing population is undoubtedly in our interest. The cost of living and housing would drop. Our emissions would naturally go down. If the population keeps going up indefinitely we’re all going to die. What’s her endgame? We should expedite overpopulation and extinction? The economy will change and we’ll be faced with new challenges for sure but that’s 1000% better than the other option.
W artoga
October 4, 2023 at 11:17 am
Let it shrink, no problem there …
W artoga
October 4, 2023 at 11:23 am
Less people, less pollution; some problems solved …
Abdullah Unal
October 4, 2023 at 11:44 am
A couple hours after this video Kurszesagt published a similar video with the same takeaways. I think they are up to something.
Evolved Chicken
October 4, 2023 at 12:07 pm
Could be. After all Kurszesagt has been directly sponsored by billionaires like Bill Gates (who due to system reinforcement is interested in growing population and growing economy , like all bilionaires are , because this is what keeps their position of power and status) , and indirectly continues to be sponsored through donations. That could influence which sources of info they prefer to present.
Diya_lectic
October 4, 2023 at 11:45 am
She must have known about the fourth option (comprised of most of this comments section) but didn’t present it due to her target audience/agenda. Such a shame, such a waste.
BorderReaper
October 4, 2023 at 12:05 pm
I’d rather not live in her world! 😂
Saurav Kapoor
October 4, 2023 at 12:35 pm
WTF she is right….Humanity is on a self destructing path until and unless we discover immortality
Neal
October 4, 2023 at 12:38 pm
When you put population growth against services and food produced it looks very different. Just try to get a hospital appointment then talk about population.
Galena Rayven
October 4, 2023 at 12:44 pm
Yes. Better us than the animals, trees, oceans, and all of nature. People are a disease on mother earth and it’s time for her to fight back.
Civil Savant
October 4, 2023 at 12:48 pm
So, since over 4/5 of humanity today get literally no access to healthcare, and the remaining 1/5 never work a single day in their lives, who is going to see to the care of the old people majority when 4/5 of old people are too sick and crippled to care for themselves because of a lifetime of cumulative health complications cause by our abusive owners, and the remaining 1/5 are witless skill-less imbeciles who don’t know squat because they were born into privilege and wasted their entire existence on noting but hoarding even greater privilege?
The future world Sciubba is painting is a disaster unless we revolutionize now, end the era of rulership with extreme severity, end tolerance for classism, create of world where legitimate government is the norm instead of the happy fairytale from over the horizon, where the people are acknowledged by the state as the supreme authority and both tolerate nothing less, where we can all grow into this approaching grey-era as titans of steel-pillar bodies and academic accomplishment instead of ignorant, broken slaves and their semi-conscious masters.
behii
October 4, 2023 at 12:59 pm
I am happy that world population is getting down to zero.
Fergus McIver
October 4, 2023 at 1:53 pm
I must admit, I don’t really care
GingerScholar
October 4, 2023 at 2:05 pm
our economic models are incompatible with having children. high health care costs, nearly a third of our lives in work and/or school settings, large wealth gaps, infinite consumerism, and child care costs all make having children an immense cost. This isn’t including how having children negatively impacts at least one parent’s long term career goals, and how we’ve had multiple once in a lifetime economic disasters alongside record number of billion+ dollar disasters also makes having more kids less desirable.
no one owes their country more kids. but maybe if we want more we should think about the investments needed on all levels
dachicagoan81
October 4, 2023 at 3:20 pm
Ancient civilizations in the Americas were able to accommodate a large population with little strain on the planet and everyone had comfortable and mostly independent lives. But insert corporatism, corruption and greed, no civilization can be sustained long term
john eipe
October 4, 2023 at 3:41 pm
Automation and AI will balance the lower younger population going forward
lmdetect
October 4, 2023 at 5:34 pm
When I was born there were 4 billion people on this planet. 54 years later and there are 8 billion.
Humanity nor this planet will be able to sustain this for a great length of time. That’s just reality.
Peace Shalom
October 4, 2023 at 5:36 pm
Many comments are about the number of people and not the facts that abortion is the cause of having an “aging” population.
Media has already put fear into everyone of over population, so everyone will ignore the facts they are trying to kill us with viruses made in labs in Russia and China and who knows where else. Canada boasts about giving women abortion pills and same people want to let their population take a pill to kill themselves. Assisted suicide for any reason.
And the tax payor’s foot the bill. Ps nothing she is saying has not already been said 15 years on PBS.
Chris Weems
October 4, 2023 at 7:01 pm
This is why the borders are open btw..
Eyal Urim
October 4, 2023 at 7:49 pm
Very silly talk
D Wnright
October 5, 2023 at 10:11 pm
we have way way too many people. our planet can reasonably support 1.5b..we hit that during the industrial revolution. almost ALL respected experts agree. FYI we hit 2b c1900.
planet now pushing back as temps soar.
Scott Keller
October 5, 2023 at 10:44 pm
Each time we have one more death than birth (both natural parts of life), we decrease a whole carbon footprint. Think of the area of Brazilian rainforests that won’t be chopped down to plant crops for export to growing populations. Both AI and robotics are already poised to replace many jobs. If there were more people being born, many of them would find no employment. However, with these jobs being done by machines, the GDP will not go down, it may even continue to increase. As the populations decrease, man made climate change will continue to decrease and coastal areas won’t have to all be rebuilt after hurricanes, because there wouldn’t be as much demand. The distribution of wealth is the biggest thing to deal with, as it has been for a long time.
Unplugged Overlander
October 5, 2023 at 11:53 pm
I dont even need listen to this too dam many come on
Kelly Hofer
October 6, 2023 at 12:07 am
What freedoms or rights do you gain from an exponentially increasing population?
Isn’t a moderately fluctuating steady state economy more desirable than a declining one?
John G
October 6, 2023 at 12:27 am
Anyone doing these studies and saying there aren’t enough people, aren’t taking into consideration automation and AI increases. A significant portion of jobs we run are pointless, those that are essential are easily automated
Midori Hoshi
October 6, 2023 at 1:27 am
Less kids should be a good thing. Climate change is the biggest issue and having less kids is the best thing we can do. Reducing fossil fuel use is second best. The USA really needs universal healthcare and likely UBI as well. Or at the very least, a living wage tied to (actual) inflation.
Bever
October 6, 2023 at 2:00 am
Too many people on Earth. Population growth is fueling environmental disasters, war, and climate change. 3 billion is about right. Some people claim there’s a shortage in workers. There is no shortage at all. They are just on the wrong side of the borders. Countries are no longer appropriate. They are stopping us from solving our biggest problems, which happen to all be global. Give Ai a few more years and we’ll be seeing unemployment inching up to new hights. More and more automation means that the rich won’t need the rest of the population to keep up their extravagant lifestyle. Slowly, the lion share of society will become expendable and unable to feed themselves in contaminated environments. Is this the future we want?
Barcode Surya Solution
October 6, 2023 at 3:19 am
well what do we expect when capitalism run wild uncheck.
raising a child becaming a heavy burden now adays.
IHWKR
October 6, 2023 at 4:17 am
Everything seems to be a byproduct of too many people. More people =more competion for jobs and basic needs and neciities based off finite resources. As populations increase, fiat money inflates thus decreasing the purchasing power of the dollar.
Humans are a parasite, we destroy our world, trash it. 8 billion is about 3-4 billion too much.
mistahtom
October 6, 2023 at 4:25 am
This video is fantasy. It fails to take into account the sheer magnitude of the population. Even if you have a decrease in the growth rate, your population has already ballooned, that won’t lead to a decline, it will just lead to an increase.
Also, this video assumes the population will age. It will not age as lifespan shortens and the population treadmills towards younger ages.
Jim Lyons
October 6, 2023 at 7:28 am
At the dawn of agriculture 10,000 years ago the weight of human biomass was 1% of the planets mammalian biomass. Today, the combined weight of humans and the animals they domesticate is roughly 96% of the planets mammalian biomass (Bill Rees).
It took 250,000 years – into the early 1800’s -for the human population to reach the first billion. The most recent addition of a billion people only took 11 years.
Back in the early 70’s the Club of Rome saw this coming and published the Limits To Growth.
I think our problem is a lot bigger than one of demographics.
fractalbeethoven
October 6, 2023 at 7:33 am
BNW Hatcheries within 20 years!
Dinnernator
October 6, 2023 at 8:20 am
Too many.
sean7891233
October 6, 2023 at 8:28 am
Too many
goober
October 6, 2023 at 9:05 am
Humanity has a zero per cent track record for “sensible planning ahead” We will just carry on until all the oil is gone.
Alejandro Mendoza
October 6, 2023 at 12:11 pm
this is pure corporatist rubbish. the real solution is taxing the rich.
Michael Rusch
October 6, 2023 at 2:28 pm
Unfortunately I think no matter what we’re facing some consequences, I view population decline as the more survivable one. Giving Mother Nature a chance to repair and us a chance to adapt our technology to being more sustainable. If handled right this might lead us to a utopia.
Tony Johansson
October 6, 2023 at 5:46 pm
Well it is a beautiful idea but it will not work. Migration rarely works out for neither parties and most migrants are economical refugees- not the skilled workforce we need. And if it was we would cause a brain-drain in the third world. I think this eill work out fine, workforce will be replaced by AI and we the shrinking population will do just fine.
grunky0
October 6, 2023 at 5:47 pm
Didn’t we just pass 8 billion people? We have plenty of people, too many for the resources of this planet. We need a Thanos solution to ensure biodiversity.
Schrodingers Bs
October 6, 2023 at 5:53 pm
There are way too many “intellectuals” on this planet who aren’t being held accountable for their genocidal beliefs & global actions on them.
cresbydotcom
October 6, 2023 at 6:25 pm
The story of population is quite simple. More people, more pollution. That alone should worry people, worry them more than is current. If population peaks it will also be because of war and starvation – ie agriculture shrinks – lack of food production as the “ideal growing” latitudes move nearer the poles with climate change. War over the best growing lands – happened in Africa, and in Syria. The magic solution is migration! The world will habituate to the new norm, but it won’t be as comfortable. Have a nice day, y’all.
Living Being
October 6, 2023 at 7:57 pm
Whenever I hear people talking about human beings as “resources” it gives real s1ave trade vibes.
Summer Every Day
October 6, 2023 at 8:11 pm
If more people keep choosing not to have kids then humanity will go extinct
Randy7777
October 6, 2023 at 9:19 pm
I would be happy if the world less be populated!
Clovis Sangrail
October 6, 2023 at 9:39 pm
This kind of topics is the governments domain. Human indivaduals would NOT say “hey let’s get married and raise some kids for humankind.” NO.Leave them alone, cz there are so many troubles around them already.
pete fluffy
October 6, 2023 at 10:10 pm
Crying about population decline, not one word on carrying capacity. Why is that ? This argument is nothing more than and economic one. Even more “oh woe are we”.
PorkyRabbit
October 7, 2023 at 2:06 am
The wolves are upset the sheep aren’t reproducing
Margaret Craigie
October 7, 2023 at 2:46 am
And maybe, reimagine the economy so that it is a tool to support people, rather than something we should prop up if it is no longer suitable for an aging poulation.
Matthew McCarter
October 7, 2023 at 9:47 am
The problem isn’t population, the problem is how our economy is structured.
elle Aubry
October 7, 2023 at 11:58 am
When all the assets (money) is concentrated into the hands of a few, leaving the rest of us impoverished, why would anyone consider bringing a child into that kind of life?
View From The High Chair
October 7, 2023 at 1:05 pm
The fairly obvious solution to an aging population is to increase the retirement age; however, this could be made far more palatable by lowering hours worked or only requiring part-time hours for those above the current retirement age. The one immediate benefit I could see coming from this idea is, some seniors who current lead a solitary, and often lonely, existence would still have some freedom with lower hours but would also have some benefit of getting out into the world a few days of the week for some part of the day. Having too many hours to oneself is not healthy and, for some, is a road to an early and sad end.
I will emphasize that making people work in elder years like they’re a fresh-faced kid is cruel and should be avoided by any society that cares even a little about its citizens.
Worth thinking about.
Michael Geoghegan
October 7, 2023 at 8:28 pm
There’s been 50 years of wage suppression wages can go up quite a bit before it will have a significant inflationary impact however, continuing to print money like there’s no tomorrow, obviously has led to hyperinflation. Affordable family housing, liveable wages and a return to traditional values where family is put ahead of career will all ensure that the population will start going up again.
Right now population growth in Canada is falling off a cliff because young people can’t afford to rent let alone by family housing. It represents a our complete failure as a society.