Science & Technology
The Tipping Point I Got Wrong | Malcolm Gladwell | TED
In his 2000 bestseller “The Tipping Point,” Malcolm Gladwell told the story of why crime fell in New York City in the 1990s. Now, 25 years later, he’s back with a confession and a mea culpa: “I was wrong,” he says. He shares how his analysis contributed to the rise of the infamous “stop and…
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@Edwordless
October 30, 2024 at 10:20 am
Thanks for revisiting this. However, there are some ongoing flaws with this analysis as well. One mechanism well researched for behavior change is interruption and redirection. That may be part of the explanation for the decline. In addition without some sort of experimental reversal, these anecdotes tell an incomplete story at best, and don’t provide enough control over the variables to make a firm conclusion. Finally, something can dually be effective, like stop and frisk or policing minor crimes, and unethical at the same time. It’s important moving forward to do deeper dives to better understand the mechanisms around the ebb and flow of crime, so that we can better plan and minimize it.
@robertolson7304
October 30, 2024 at 10:25 am
Safer in New york. 😂. Most crimes aren’t reported in the slums. The wages and housing are so bad that they keep the crimes in the slums. Police don’t go into the slums because they see too much crime. You got to pick and choose what you deal with. They system would be overloaded if they document all crimes.
@harrypearle9781
October 30, 2024 at 10:50 am
DUMP TRUMP or TRUMP DUMPS, US!
Perhaps, perhaps, the voters will FLIP over and HARRIS will win, now!
================================================ tnx Malcolm
@ozgoodphotos
October 30, 2024 at 5:16 pm
God help us if she wins. 😢😢😢
@whybegin1285
October 30, 2024 at 10:55 am
If the system boosted you into being famous for academia, then you probably were wrong in your analysis
@whybegin1285
October 30, 2024 at 11:01 am
What is this stupid logic lmao he STILL is convinced the police are the ones stopping crime even after stop and frisk? They are reactors not preventers. The crime statistic doesn’t change based on their presence. Has he ever considered gentrification perhaps? A decline of poverty via relocation of said people leading to less crime?
@Humandriver5280
October 30, 2024 at 11:41 am
Gentrification caused crime to fall.
@ClydsdaleVI
October 30, 2024 at 12:08 pm
Was “stop and frisk” just one of numerous factors in the “broken windows” policing approach? Did the other broken windows policies continue? To what do you attribute the second drop in crime post 2013 and to what do you attribute the more recent spike in crime in NYC over the last number of years?
@eliasnystrom1161
October 30, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Couldn’t the natural experiment point towards stop and frisk simply not making a difference when the crime rate is already low? Does anyone know if the effectiveness of stop and frisk varies based on crime rate? Spontaneously, I would believe that stop and frisk would be effective were the odds of finding a criminal would be high.
@hikerstl
October 30, 2024 at 1:42 pm
Well, he officially asking to be granted back into the ultra liberal world, What a jerk. Has he looked at the crime rates in various cities run by liberal idiots. This is speech is nothing about the facts but his need to be forgiven by left where he circulates.
@homewall744
October 30, 2024 at 2:09 pm
I thought you said it was abortion that lowered crime. And clearly a place that allows lawless behavior encourages more such actions, though to say a broken window causes murder was always absurd and fully unsupported. And stop and frisk increases crime because it increases hatred of the police and government in general.
Liberty is the solution. There’s no “price to pay” to be “safe” when it means more government force and violence. It fell BECAUSE they stopped harassing the people AND because reports of crime went down once the people no longer cared about the police and the police didn’t care about crime.
@MellyBelle
October 30, 2024 at 2:13 pm
The rebuttal that my sister would employ is that the drop in violent crime is an illusion because of the times that various crimes are removed from the category of violent crime when being classified. This is a claim that I could not easily find information on. A researcher who dedicates their work to this subject could investigate this potentially confounding variable and discuss how it fits in the overall picture of crime trends. Otherwise, it remains a reasonable talking point to discredit any conclusions about what interventions are truly effective.
@AThirstyPhilosopher
October 30, 2024 at 2:34 pm
More of this! Id love to see TED be a place for examples of admitting mistakes, apologizing in meaningful ways, reparations, tips to young people on how to think critically and see other perspectives.
@AThirstyPhilosopher
October 30, 2024 at 2:35 pm
More of this! I’d love to see TED be a place for examples of admitting mistakes, apologizing in meaningful ways, reparations, tips to young people on how to think critically and see other perspectives.
@peacepeach6377
October 30, 2024 at 3:16 pm
There was a national shift in the cultural awareness around violent policing practices after Floyd, and I’m sure there are other factors that lead to the drop in violent crime after that point. We can’t point to only one factor and call it the defining one. Many factors come into play to create the outcomes that we had, and attributing the outcomes to one factor while largely igoring the others is a little shortsighted
@BobbbyJoeKlop
October 30, 2024 at 3:27 pm
He’s completely missing the lead–crime hypothesis in his analysis here. Which goes far further in accurately describing the GLOBAL downtrend in crime after the phase out of leaded gasoline throughout the world. Even further, atmospheric lead may also be the reason why the 1960s saw such levels of unrest and social turmoil throughout much of the industrialized world. Lead exposure does incredible damage to the pre-frontal cortex, which is the seat of behavior, cultural norms, and self-control.
@PhoebeFayRuthLouise
October 30, 2024 at 3:51 pm
I appreciate the courage it takes to admit you were wrong and that your mistake had real negative impacts on people. Well done!
@harrypearle9781
October 30, 2024 at 3:52 pm
DUMP TRUMP or TRUMP DUMPS, US !
Try simple ;repeated sayings, rhyming words, etc, MG
Complex arguments only confuse and ANGER voters, turning them to TRUMP!
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@MichelleCarithersAuthor
October 30, 2024 at 5:07 pm
❤
@KimZhou-x1c
October 30, 2024 at 6:47 pm
” as safe as paris” , the “Paris” of what time? nowadays?🤔
@Matt-dt7cf
October 30, 2024 at 7:52 pm
So what did cause the crime to go down?
@chuckhall5347
October 30, 2024 at 8:13 pm
Stop and frisk was a travesty of justice. Too bad it took so long for the courts to stop it. Lower courts were obviously complict.
@WarrenAbrey
October 30, 2024 at 8:21 pm
I Like Gladwell’s books, and enjoy his podcast, and am comfortable saying that even while admitting he was wrong, his ego shines through claiming credit for why everyone believes something.
@kmacgregor6361
October 30, 2024 at 9:00 pm
I wholeheartedly support the goal of embracing uncertainty in journalism, and I would add equally important in politics. But I also think we need better math and science literacy for everyone. Because this should have been understandable to both the writer and readers: if crime fell everywhere at the same time it fell in New York, then it’s unlikely you can attribute the drop to a change in New York. And if you want to look for the cause of something like that, you need a whole lot more context and data than just one correlation.
@agusbattocarol
October 30, 2024 at 9:08 pm
Great example of human evolution, learning and humbleness.
@nassimsabba8922
October 30, 2024 at 9:13 pm
A highly probable cause of drop in crime may have been abortion rights of mid 70s. A lot less people who couldn’t support their children properly, decided to terminate their earlier pregnancies, including lots of teenagers. People with both parents around don’t act out of innate anger. It doesn’t exist in normally raised people, it is not a miracle, it is our evolution. Parents are needed to raise us.
I wish he had looked at this theory too. It has been around since late 2000s.
Crime fell everywhere in the US right when the youth that would have had been angry and desperate were not born, when they’d be around 24 or 25, which is actually exactly when human brains finalizes the wiring of our “ethics region”, our prefrontal cortical region. But, I imagine that just not being raised by a desperate parent who has no free moment to show love is sufficient to give you a different view of society. Ability to decide if you want or can support a child was national, and so was the resulting drop in number of people who’d have been raised prone to anti-social views. Individual freedom seems to work better than not.