Does confidence equal competence? Not quite. In a talk that will make you better aware of yourself, experimental psychologist Robin Kramer delves into the Dunning-Kruger effect — which argues that those who are least capable often overestimate their skills the most — and explores just how good you are at judging your own abilities.
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Ray
November 16, 2023 at 1:25 pm
Second like 👍
Myles Archer (Milo)
November 16, 2023 at 1:26 pm
Im good at advertising but I could use some help.
Giovan Panzanella
November 16, 2023 at 1:26 pm
The question that keeps me up at night
Ryan Ambrose
November 16, 2023 at 1:29 pm
My problem is that I think I’m bad at everything.
Jeremy Lloyd Marquez
November 16, 2023 at 1:33 pm
Relatable
bustednebs
November 16, 2023 at 1:52 pm
Means you think that you’re good at being bad?? haha
Elmy Y
November 16, 2023 at 2:52 pm
Try treat yourself like you treat the people you love the most❤ if you can’t, I suggest cognitive behavioral therapy
Lb
November 16, 2023 at 4:01 pm
Not really, you are absolutely good at something. Just try to learn more about yourself than you think you do
hyperillion
November 16, 2023 at 5:42 pm
My problem is that I actually am bad at everything and need to try very very hard to do even the simplest of things.
Mubin Mahmudov
November 16, 2023 at 1:30 pm
Awesome
Gem Cox
November 16, 2023 at 1:30 pm
Me so good…..
Mr Me
November 16, 2023 at 1:36 pm
Nice
Rezin 8
November 16, 2023 at 1:39 pm
yes….yes i am….new stuff is tricky
videographic memory 🪄
perceptions are valid….not always accurate
🔴 LISA LIVE
November 16, 2023 at 1:45 pm
1:10:58* Let’s only take a moment to appreciate how much hours and work she put in this vid?*
*It’s unbelievable, and I think they deserve a lot more than that*
G G
November 16, 2023 at 1:46 pm
Well I guess not.
Dr. Ricco Lindner
November 16, 2023 at 2:08 pm
Technically IT IS possible that most people are above average (whether that is true for driving or not), since the talk is about average if “mean” is meant and nit “median”.
The few below average just need to be really far away on the bad side, and most people only slightly better than average
Guilherme Lopes
November 16, 2023 at 3:31 pm
Yes, but normally with “below average” in simple speaking it means the average person, the standard one. Being below the average person in these sense means being below the person who holds the median value for that variable
Dr. Ricco Lindner
November 16, 2023 at 3:39 pm
@Guilherme Lopes I know that 😉 still people should be more careful with saying mathematically impossible 😉
1IGG
November 16, 2023 at 6:41 pm
Also, WHO are we asking? There are billions of people too poor to drive or even own a car. Are you sure they would say they’re average drivers?
Topcut Centurion
November 16, 2023 at 2:13 pm
Doing your best is all you can do
Interstellarsurfer
November 16, 2023 at 2:20 pm
Yes, because visual processing and snap judgements are comparable to knowledge based tasks. /s
No, they’re not comparable at all. Nice try, though.
Marius Tetlimo
November 16, 2023 at 2:39 pm
Well now I doubt it
LanCyfer
November 16, 2023 at 2:45 pm
I’m really good at Fortnite, except when I run into other players.
Adil Nisar
November 16, 2023 at 7:55 pm
😂😂😂
Phillip Polk
November 16, 2023 at 2:50 pm
Just remember : you don’t know what you don’t know (think about it) do not limit your curiosity, but please continue to learn.
Echo Delta
November 16, 2023 at 3:10 pm
I am
Yuusou
November 16, 2023 at 3:40 pm
And another talk where the Dunning-Kruger effect is obviously misunderstood. It’s not only about the low-scoring people being overconfident in their abilities (which this talk focuses on like many other people referencing this effect), but also the high performers underestimating their scores, assuming that they must have failed more often than they actually performed. What you will realize with any real expert: they don’t give absolute answers and they provide boundaries to their expertise. Anyone selling themselves as the best is only used for boosting their own confidence. If you want to have confidence in that person, you see recommendations flowing into the person’s direction, because everyone with less confidence in themselves felt more confident after interacting with that person.
marcarmstrong88
November 16, 2023 at 4:07 pm
You seem pretty confident about what you just stated.
Yuusou
November 17, 2023 at 1:03 am
@marcarmstrong88 You seem pretty uninformed about what I wrote.
Jay E
November 16, 2023 at 3:53 pm
I base my driving ability on the number of accidents I’ve been in and tickets I’ve received. 😂
Adil Nisar
November 16, 2023 at 7:54 pm
😂😂🙂
alexanderoekr
November 16, 2023 at 5:00 pm
Great research, I always mark myself as average or below average, as i am critical to what i do.
Dame Anvil
November 16, 2023 at 5:35 pm
00:33 🚗 People often rate their driving ability as above average, showcasing the “better than average” effect, a common cognitive bias when judging personal abilities.
01:32 📊 The Dunning-Kruger effect highlights how low performers tend to overestimate their abilities due to a lack of insight, seen across various domains from tests to skills like driving or chess.
02:57 🔄 Criticisms of the Dunning-Kruger effect have emerged, questioning its validity due to statistical effects like regression to the mean, showing similar patterns even in meaningless data sets.
06:52 🤔 The relationship between confidence and correctness in decision-making highlights how higher performers tend to be more confident in correct responses, indicating better metacognitive insight.
08:54 🧠 Insight depends on ability, but the weakest performers don’t necessarily display overly high confidence, yet they struggle to differentiate between correct and incorrect responses, showcasing poor insight.
09:24 🧪 Scientific understanding evolves, and the Dunning-Kruger effect may not hold true in all contexts, emphasizing the importance of staying open to new evidence and updates in research.
09:53 🤷♂ Confidence doesn’t always correlate with accuracy. Seeking opinions from knowledgeable experts is more reliable than relying solely on confidence, as confidence can be misplaced.
cybersekkin
November 16, 2023 at 6:57 pm
Sadly there would need to be testing across a variety of problem types. Using facial recognition alone is not sufficient to make a determination. It may point to more research is needed and it indicates there may be something here to change our understanding, but it is not enough based on such a specific and limited test.
Obie Zervar
November 16, 2023 at 6:59 pm
Average is not Real. It resembles Data but it is a fallacy. Who decides what is Competent and what is Relevant. Average is just a lazy way to specify intricasy. .
No One Star
November 16, 2023 at 10:11 pm
In today’s world, it actually doesn’t matter how good or bad you are at something. Didnay (Bob Eyegurr and KK) have verified that on a number of occasions, and with MILLIONS of dollars! And so have people like Chump, Theranos chick, Bankman-Fraud, Aleggz Jonez, Bear Grillz, etc. etc. All that matters are things like coin, connections, crews, clout, computer code, control, communities, and opportunities. If enough influential people give you the proverbial five stars… then you’re golden! 🙂 If not… then, sorry, you suck at whatever it is you do. That applies even if your work is exemplary, because image is EVERYTHING. End of story; no exceptions; just accept it.
Shuja ul Hasan
November 17, 2023 at 1:07 am
this was pretty confusing, I’ll have to watch it again to understand it better
Tom Riddle
November 17, 2023 at 2:49 am
Everyone thinks they are driving better than average because some grade their driving skill based on how safe they drive while others based on how fast and fearless.
In other words, every person has a different set of weights to grade the same one skill in a multidimensional way, which causes pseudo-paradoxes in mono-dimensional analyses.
Salman Sayyad
November 17, 2023 at 3:48 am
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
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01:00 📸 *AI beauty filters, while handy, can contribute to body dysmorphia and unhealthy self-image due to the pressure to use them on social media.*
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03:33 🌍 *Many global issues like pollution, deforestation, and greenhouse gas emissions result from poorly designed competitive incentives that prioritize short-term gains over long-term consequences.*
07:08 🤖 *The AI industry’s competitive race may compromise safety and ethical considerations, emphasizing the need for AI leaders to prioritize responsible development over winning the race.*
Made with HARPA AI
Erl DaGerl
November 19, 2023 at 9:24 am
Did we watch the same video?
Andy Cordy
November 17, 2023 at 3:58 am
Thank you. The propagation of confidence for its own sake in the field of management has led us to crisis point in our society, where confidence is valued much more highly than ability we see failure after failure and frustration among the truly able who lack the assertiveness to propose what they know to be better solutions. It is an endemic phenomenon and highly destructive.
Hải Nguyên Land Nha Trang
November 17, 2023 at 6:08 am
Great question and perfect speech. Thanks!
FKM
November 17, 2023 at 6:59 am
Jack of all trades,
Master of none,
But often times,
Better than the master of one.
Wenhao Zhang
November 17, 2023 at 7:07 am
Here, I have to be honest with myself: 1. This is a fasinating talk with brilliant ideas from an innovative research. 2. I am so poor at quantitatve research that I find myself extremely difficult to follow. Anyway, in the past I was a person who always dwelled on why I sucked at something and ruined my day by wandering without doing anything. Now, even if it can be the case that I am not good at something, it doesn’t bother: if I find something I am not good at, this is the time to learn and think, and try to master it. This video motivates me to learn more. Thanks for TED.
TSHEPO MALAKA
November 19, 2023 at 5:56 am
Yes I concur sir, the acceptance of not knowing helps so much as you move along to the point where you learn and know more
Christian Soldier
November 17, 2023 at 7:54 am
A test proves what you’re interested in. It can also prove how your brain is wired. People have different levels of photographic memory.
GrapeShot
November 17, 2023 at 8:56 am
I think Dunning Kruger effect applies to only the fields in which the respondents are eager to score well. Here in this experiment the candidates may not have cared what score they got, so D-K effect didnt show
eunji kim
November 17, 2023 at 11:16 am
11/18 am1:16 시청
메타인지, 우리 자신의 사고 과정에 대한 통찰.
좋은 메타인지적 통찰력을 갖고 있다면 특정 작업을 얼마나 잘 수행하고 있다고 느끼는지와 실제로 내가 얼마나 잘하는지가 꽤 일치할 것임. but 현실에는 그렇지 않은 경우가 많은데 사람들은 반대로 생각하고 있는 경우가 많음. 가장 약한 성과를 내는 그룹이 자신의 성과를 과대평가함.
점수가 낮은 사람은 정답과 오답에서 자신감의 차이가 별로 없었고, 점수가 높은 사람은 정답을 말할 때 더욱 자신감을 가졌음.
일상생활에서 의견을 구할 때 해당 지식의 전문가에게 묻는 것이 합리적.
R P
November 17, 2023 at 3:42 pm
it depends on how you determine it. if you have a lifetime of excellence where others stand literally in amazement of you doing what you do, then yeah, you’re probably exceptional. chess has elo ratings. you can just measure how good you are and that measurement gives good predictive results.
If you make everyone else look stupid by comparison, you’re probably pretty good. michael jordan’s oppontens were terrified of him to where they couldn’t sleep the night before. he’s probably exactly as good as he thinks he is.
Cosmic Okie
November 17, 2023 at 4:27 pm
Man if we only had a method to test how good we are at stuff… Pffft. Maybe folks shouldnt be so up in arms about standardized tests and competition in education.
fcsuper
November 17, 2023 at 4:43 pm
Apples and oranges. This speaker is trying to compare Dunning-Kruger skill-based results to results where no one had any actual skill and everyone was just guessing. Of course the results are different. It’s a different criteria of data. It’s a rather unethical use of data to try to jab at current knowledge using spurious analysis.
Licio Rutigliano
November 18, 2023 at 4:05 am
Mr Robin Kramer, you made a mistake: If the majority drive well, and a minority drive badly, then, mathematically, the majority drive better than the average
fburton8
November 19, 2023 at 10:49 am
Problem is that a majority drive rather poorly.
Ricky Putra Sinaga
November 18, 2023 at 6:36 am
Such a good talk show
Melesniannon
November 18, 2023 at 9:26 am
I think the Dunning-Kruger effect probably gained such popularity because it quickly became a method to call other people dumb without literally saying so.
Αργυρώ Κέκου
November 18, 2023 at 10:51 am
i am always surprised to how smart i can be..
Veritas Liberabit
November 18, 2023 at 4:46 pm
Our perception of our abilities is not just a personal matter but has far-reaching implications in our collective quest for knowledge and truth.
Aminur Rashid
November 18, 2023 at 10:10 pm
seems like TED is using cheap mobile camera to shoot video.
Ivano Grij
November 19, 2023 at 2:38 pm
fix the audio
John Shaw
November 19, 2023 at 8:07 pm
I don’t wish to be better than anyone and I’m probably not especially at the moment considering how much pain I’m in.
Fugi Narhan
November 19, 2023 at 9:25 pm
this is the counter-intuitive of other motivational videos, but tbh I love it.
BEHNAM MOMENI
November 22, 2023 at 12:03 am
I think if we change the initial question from How we are good at driving? with for example how we are good at relationships? the answer will be changed. So, the question matters in proving process of the D-K effect. D-K shows itself in some skills and in others it might not hold true.
Sag Norm
November 22, 2023 at 8:38 am
I think you missed something very important in your end analysis. You did not factor in critical thinking and logical thinking.
To create a very obvious simple example for you, imagine a expert psychologist telling you that 90% of communication is non verbal. They are the experts and they probably have good insight and according to you, a lay person should believe them.
But any lay person knows that they can read a book or talk on the phone and understand over 90% of what the authors are saying. So even though you are not an expert in psychology, you can confidently say the psychologist is wrong by the use of critical thinking.